Justin Trudeau, MP by Alex Guibord is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Licence
Liberals lead across GTA, Toronto
Conservatives second, NDP
TORONTO September 18th, 2015- In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™
among 1183 voters in Toronto and the surrounding GTA (Durham, York, Peel and
Halton Regions), more than 4-in-10 in total will vote Liberal in the coming
federal election (41%), while just more than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative
(31%). Just one quarter will vote NDP (24%) and very few will vote Green (4%)
or for other parties (1%).
NDP lags in GTA
Both the Liberals
(43%) and Conservatives (33%) do better in the surrounding GTA than in
Toronto (38% and 26%, respectively), while the NDP is more popular in Toronto
(31%) than in the suburb (20%).
Liberals ahead in Peel,
In Peel and Halton regions, the Liberals score close to one
half the votes (45% and 44%, respectively), while the Conservatives post their
best result in York Region (39%). The NDP does relatively poorly across the GTA
(Durham - 23%, York - 14%, Halton - 16%, Peel - 24%) and posts their best score
in downtown Toronto (40%). The Conservative Party leads only in the former city
of North York (50%).
Liberals vote common to
The Liberal vote is
characteristic of the oldest (47%), females (46%), in lower income brackets
($20K to $40K - 48%). The Conservative vote is common to boomers (55 to 64 -
36%), males (35%), in higher income brackets ($80K to $100K - 40%). The NDP
vote is strongest among the youngest (37%), males (26%), the least wealthy
(33%) and the best educated (post grad - 31%).
Most switchers move to
Among those who voted Conservative in 2011, a fifth will
vote Liberal this time around (18%), while one quarter of past New Democrats
will as well (26%). In turn, one fifth of past Liberals are voting NDP this
time (22%), but very few voters are switching to the Conservative Party.
New Democrats least committed
Whereas two thirds of Conservatives (63%) and Liberals (65%)
are strong supporters of their parties, only about one half of those planning
to vote NDP say this (49%).
Trudeau with highest
Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of voters (48%),
and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +16.
Tom Mulcair has the approval of just fewer (45%) and his net is also +16.
Stephen Harper has approval from 3-in-10 (31%), and his net rating is a very
Plurality worse off now than
4 years ago
The largest single group,
close to 4-in-10, say they are worse off now than they were four years ago, in
2011 (37%), while one third say they are better off (32%). Three-in-ten say
their circumstances haven’t changed (29%). Conservatives are much more likely
to say they are better off (61%) than are Liberals (21%) or New Democrats
(17%), and they are much less likely to say they are worse off (13%) than are
supporters of the other two parties (Liberals - 45%, NDP - 50%).
“While it is known
that Toronto is Liberal heartland, it is surprising to see this poll dispel the
myth of the monolithic Conservative vote in the 905 area code. In fact, the outlying
areas of the GTA are more Liberal than Conservative. This turn to the Liberals
in the 905 may be ascribed to increasing dissatisfaction from ethnic
communities on the Conservative views on immigration and, now, the niqab," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com
or at (416) 960-9603.