Liberals, PCs tied in Ontario

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Liberals, PCs tied in Ontario

Liberal minority seen

TORONTO November 29th, 2014 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1054 Ontario voters, exactly equal proportions, just more than a third, will vote PC or Liberal if a provincial election were held today (37% each). This is in contrast to one month ago, when the Liberals held a five point lead over the PCs (40% to 35%). The NDP vote is stable at a little less than one fifth (17% now, 19% a month ago). Few will vote Green (7%) or for any other party (2%).

The Liberal vote is common to younger groups (35 to 44 - 40%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 42%), in the city of Toronto (53%), moms of kids under 18 (41%) and the best educated (post grad - 53%). The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (47%), the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 42%), in Eastern Ontario (50%) and the least educated (43%).

Liberals would lead minority government

If these results were projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take 52 to 38 for the PCs. The NDP would take 17 seats. This is in contrast to a 2 seat majority for the Liberals projected last month (56, 37, 14 seats, respectively).

PCs would lead with Christine Elliott at the helm

If an election were held today, and Christine Elliott were PC leader, the party would have a slight advantage over the Liberals (37% to 35%), while the NDP would still take a fifth (19%).

PCs would win if Chow led NDP

If the election were held with Olivia Chow leading the New Democrats, they would improve their vote share to more than a quarter (26%), but, more importantly, the PCs would lead the Liberals (35% to 31%).

Christine Elliott leads all other contenders for all attributes

When voters are asked which of the five contenders for the PC leadership would be best at a number of tasks, Christine Elliott is preferred by wide margins for all, including winning the next election (29%), balancing the budget (22%), working effectively with the government in Ottawa (29%), being the most likeable (27%), sharing the respondent's values (20%) and making the best leader for the party (Elliott - 26%, none of these - 48%). No other candidate scores in double digits on any of these dimensions.

Wynne's favourables down, others stable

Premier Wynne has the approval of just more than 4-in-10 (42%), down from closer to half last month (46%), and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is well down from +5 last month to -5 now. Andrea Horwath's approval is stable (33% now, 31% last month), and her net is similar to last month (-9 now, -13 then). Interim leader of the PCs, Jim Wilson, posts low approvals (22%) and disapprovals (24%) and has a neutral net score of -1.

 The Liberals have lost vote share to the point where the PCs lead when Christine Elliott, the prohibitive favourite for the leadership, is mentioned. What is more interesting though, is that Olivia Chow will take votes from both parties if she leads the NDP, leaving the PCs with a clear lead over the Liberals," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.