Liberals
and NDP remain tied in Sudbury
Independent Andrew Olivier surges
TORONTO January
21st, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken among 689
voters in the Ontario provincial riding of Sudbury, where a by-election will
take place on February 5, equal proportions, about a third or just less, will
vote for the Liberal candidate (formerly NDP MP) Glenn Thibeault (33%) or the
NDP candidate, Suzanne Shawbonquit (30%). While they were also tied the last
time we polled this riding (January 13, Thibeault - 40%, Shawbonquit - 42%),
what has changed is that independent Andrew Olivier (formerly a Liberal
candidate), has surged from almost no votes on January 13 (1%) to as much as
close to a quarter now (22%), putting him in third place, ahead of the PC
candidate, Paula Peroni (11% now, 13% on January 13).
Thibeault’s approval slips,
Shawabonquit’s awareness up
Virtually all voters are
aware of Glenn Thibeault (94%) and Andrew Olivier (89%), and most know Paula
Peroni (81%). These awareness levels are steady from January 13 (96%, 83% and
74%, respectively), but awareness levels for Suzanne Shawbonquit have increased
from two thirds (67%) to more than three quarters now (76%). Green candidate
David Robinson has also increased his awareness (from 32% to 45%). In terms of
approval, Glenn Thibeault has seen significant slippage (from 51% on January 13
to 41% now), while other candidates have mostly seen their approval levels
remain stable.
“This looks like an evenly matched race, where Thibeault’s
familiarity in the riding is matched by the strong New Democratic roots in
Sudbury, which favour Shawbonquit. The wild card is spurned Liberal candidate
Andrew Olivier, who may yet prove to be a giant killer," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne
Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be
reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
