Majority
say budget bad for Ontario
Free tuition, sin taxes liked, not so Cap and Trade
TORONTO March 1st
- In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among
1148 Ontario voters in the days immediately following the tabling of the
Ontario budget, the majority said it was not a good budget for Ontario (56%),
while fewer than one fifth thought it was good for the province (19%), Almost a
quarter didn’t know enough about it to provide an answer (23%). Thinking this
was not a good budget is characteristic of the oldest (65%), males (62%) more
than females (55%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 69%), among PC voters (87%), but
not Liberals (21%), and among the least educated (66%).
Free tuition approved by majority
The majority of voters approve of free
post-secondary tuition for students from lower income households (57%), while
just more than a third disapprove of this provision (36%). Very few are
undecided (7%). Approval of free tuition is especially characteristic of the
youngest (61%), females (61%) rather than males (52%), the least wealthy (84%),
in eastern Ontario (62%), among Liberals (81%) and New Democrats (70%) but not
especially among PC voters (34%), but among mothers and the least educated (62%
each).
Strong approval for sin taxes
Close to two thirds of voters approve of
tax increases on tobacco and alcohol (64%), while 3-in-10 disapproves (30%) and
few don’t venture an opinion (6%). Disapproval of these “sin taxes” is common
to boomers (55 to 64 - 35%), males (35%), those in mid income groups ($60K to
$80K - 40%), among PCs (43%) but not Liberals (15%), and among the least
educated (39%).
Strong disapproval for Cap and Trade
Close to 6-in-10 voters disapprove of a Cap
and Trade regime in Ontario when it is explained to them in simple terms (59%),
while just more than a quarter approve (27%) and about half this proportion
don’t know (14%). Among the groups with a stronger approval of Cap and Trade
are the very wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 37%), residents of Toronto 416 area
code (39%), the best educated (post grad - 38%) and Liberals (42%).
Stronger disapproval of Cap and Trade when costs presented
When voters are presented with the
pocketbook impact of a Cap and Trade regime on gasoline and natural gas costs, disapproval increases to more than two thirds (68%),
while approval declines to less than a quarter (22%).
Slim approval for funding greenhouse gas reduction
When voters are presented with the fact
that money raised from a Cap and Trade regime will be used to fund greenhouse
gas reduction programs, the slim plurality approve (46%) over those who
disapprove (42%). Just more than a tenth can’t venture their opinion (12%).
Revenue model preferred to revenue neutral Cap and Trade
By a very slim margin, a revenue raising
model for a Cap and Trade regime is preferred (27%) to a revenue neutral model
(22%), although the plurality of voters prefer neither (31%). Fully one fifth
don’t have enough information to make a judgment (20%). The revenue raising
model is especially preferred by the youngest (under 45 - 32%), the least
wealthy (39%), in Toronto (36%), among Liberals (42%) and New Democrats (34%)
but not among PCs (15%), and among the best educated (post grad - 36%).
“It is curious that, while they like
many of the signature budget items, such as the free tuition pledge and the
popular sin taxes, the one budget provision that was least discussed, the Cap
and Trade regime, is so unpopular it appears to have pulled down approval of
the document as a whole," said Forum Research President, Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
