PCs Widen the Gap in Ontario

| Filed under: Ontario

PCs Widen the Gap in Ontario
70% PC majority seen; NDP as opposition

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1154 Ontario voters, close to one half would vote Progressive Conservative if the election were held today (45%), while just one quarter (25%) would vote Liberal, for a 20 point gap between the two parties. This is an increase from a 13 point gap noted last month (August 15, PC - 41%, Liberal - 28%). The NDP currently has a vote share of just less than a quarter (23%) and this has not changed since last month. One twentieth support the Green Party (6%) and few support any other party (2%).

The PCs are especially strong in Eastern Ontario (51%), while the Liberals have their best showing in the city of Toronto (33%), Nonetheless, the PCs lead in the city (40%).

A significant gender gap exists in that males predominate in PC ranks (51% to 39% female), while females are more common among Liberal supporters (29% to 21% male). The one group with which the Liberals score highest is the best educated (post grad - 37%).

70% majority seen: NDP to form opposition

If these results are projected up to sets in the legislature, the Progressive Conservatives would take 70% of them, or 75 seats, to 24 for the New Democrats. The Liberals would keep just 8 seats.

Leader approvals are stable

Fewer than a fifth of voters approve of Kathleen Wynne (16%), and this is as low as she has polled. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a deeply negative - 58.

Patrick Brown has the approval of just more than a quarter (27%), and, owing to the high unknowns (48%), has a net score of just +1.

Andrea Horwath has the approval of a third of voters (36%), and her net favourable score is a positive +11.

Patrick Brown seen to be best Premier, along with “none of these"

One quarter of voters pick Patrick Brown as the best potential Premier (25%), the same proportion who say none of the leaders listed can do the job (24%). Andrea Horwatch follows, with a fifth of the vote (19%) and the incumbent brings up the rear with about one sixth of the vote share (15%). 

“The gap between the two leading parties is growing, and it’s only a matter of time until the NDP takes over second place in the popular vote share like it has with the projected number of seats. Andrea Horwath doesn’t score very high in approvals, but she still scores higher than anyone else" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.