PCs Widen the Gap in Ontario
PC majority seen; NDP as opposition
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1154 Ontario voters, close to
one half would vote Progressive Conservative if the election were held today
(45%), while just one quarter (25%) would vote Liberal, for a 20 point gap between
the two parties. This is an increase from a 13 point gap noted last month
(August 15, PC - 41%, Liberal - 28%). The NDP currently has a vote share of
just less than a quarter (23%) and this has not changed since last month. One
twentieth support the Green Party (6%) and few support any other party (2%).
The PCs are
especially strong in Eastern Ontario (51%), while the Liberals have their best
showing in the city of Toronto (33%), Nonetheless, the PCs lead in the city
A significant gender
gap exists in that males predominate in PC ranks (51% to 39% female), while
females are more common among Liberal supporters (29% to 21% male). The one
group with which the Liberals score highest is the best educated (post grad -
70% majority seen: NDP to form
If these results are
projected up to sets in the legislature, the Progressive Conservatives would
take 70% of them, or 75 seats, to 24 for the New Democrats. The Liberals would
keep just 8 seats.
Leader approvals are stable
Fewer than a fifth
of voters approve of Kathleen Wynne (16%), and this is as low as she has
polled. Her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a deeply
negative - 58.
Patrick Brown has
the approval of just more than a quarter (27%), and, owing to the high unknowns
(48%), has a net score of just +1.
Andrea Horwath has
the approval of a third of voters (36%), and her net favourable score is a
Patrick Brown seen to be best Premier,
along with “none of these"
One quarter of voters pick Patrick Brown as the best potential Premier (25%), the same proportion who say none of the leaders listed can do the job (24%). Andrea Horwatch follows, with a fifth of the vote (19%) and the incumbent brings up the rear with about one sixth of the vote share (15%).
“The gap between the
two leading parties is growing, and it’s only a matter of time until the NDP
takes over second place in the popular vote share like it has with the
projected number of seats. Andrea Horwath doesn’t score very high in approvals,
but she still scores higher than anyone else" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.