PCs Continue to Lead
Strongly in Ontario
Kathleen Wynne’s approvals lower than ever
TORONTO November 23rd
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1184
Ontario voters, the plurality, more than 4-in-10, will vote for the Progressive
Conservatives if a provincial election were held today (43%), while just one
quarter would vote either for the Liberals or the NDP (24% each). Relatively
few would vote Green (8%) or for another party (2%). The PCs post their largest
vote share in the 905 area code surrounding Toronto (47%), the Liberals do best
in the Toronto city limits (28%) and the NDP have their biggest share in
Northern Ontario (29%).
PCs on track for supermajority
If these results
were projected up to seats in the current 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would
take a supermajority, or 70 seats, while the NDP would take 26 seats. The
liberals would take just 11.
Kathleen Wynne’s favourables are lower still
The Premier has the
approval of just more than one tenth of voters (13%) and this is the lowest
value we have ever recorded for a sitting premier. Her net favourable score
(approve minus disapprove) is an astoundingly negative -60. Four-in-ten
Liberals approve of her (43%), but one third disapproves (33%).
PC leader Patrick
Brown has the approval of close to 3-in-10 (28%), and the disapproval of just
less than a quarter (23%) which gives him a net score of +5. Half the voters
don’t know enough about him to take a position (49%). One half his party
approves of him (49%) and one sixth disapprove (15%), but more than a third
don’t know enough about him to judge (36%).
Andrea Horwath has
the best approval rating of the party leaders (36%) and her net score is a
relatively positive +11. She has the
approval of two thirds of her party’s voters (65%). Even so, she prompts high
levels of “don’t knows” (39% in total, 23% among New Democrats).
Brown seen to make best premier
Patrick Brown scores
the highest of the party leaders at being Premier, with just one quarter of the
vote (26%), and he is almost tied with “none of the above” (24%). Then comes
Andrea Horwath, with a fifth of the vote (19%) and Kathleen Wynne with about
one tenth (12%). One fifth don’t offer an opinion (19%).
Just one quarter are small “c” conservatives
Just one quarter of
Ontario voters describe themselves as “small “c” conservatives” (27%), while
more than 4-in-10 say they are not (42%). Three-in-ten aren’t sure if they are
(31%). Being a conservative is common to the oldest (33%), males (33%) rather
than females (21%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 37%) and in Northern
Ontario (30%). Among PCs, just half say they are “small “c” conservatives”
(54%), and close to one fifth say they are not (18%). Among Liberals and New
Democrats, about one tenth claim conservative tendencies (11% and 12%, respectively).
High approval for legal abortion, same -ex marriage, less for
sex education curriculum
both of legalized abortion (70%) and same sex marriage (71%), and this is the
case even among PCs (63% and 62%, respectively), Liberals (75% and 80%,
respectively) and New Democrats (84% and 79%, respectively). As well, there is
majority approval for these two positions among small “c” conservatives (69%
and 67%, respectively). It is only with respect to Ontario’s sex education
curriculum that there is less consensus. One half approve of it (52%) while one
third do not (33%) and one sixth don’t know (15%). Among PCs, one half
disapprove (48%), while just more than one third approve (37%). Among Liberals
and New Democrats, approval is higher than disapproval (64% and 67%,
respectively). Small ‘“c” conservatives are exactly split on the issue (44%
approve, 43% disapprove).
“It would appear
that the traditional social value issues of abortion and equal marriage will
have little ideological purchase in an Ontario election, but the more recent
and widely publicized furor over the sex education curriculum might find some
traction, at least among PC voters. It will not fly as far among Liberals and
New Democrats though, nor even among those who describe themselves as
ideological conservatives,” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.