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Continue to Hold Big Lead
Toronto, May 12th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among
1103 Ontario voters, more than 4-in-10 (41%) say they would support the
Progressive Conservatives. More than a quarter (28%) say they would support the
Liberals, just under a quarter (23%) say they would support the NDP. (6%) say
they support the Green Party, and (3%) say they would support another party.
likely to support the Progressive Conservatives include those aged 65+ (51%),
males (50%), earning $80,000-$100,000 (47%), the most wealthy (48%), living in
Eastern (45%) or Southwestern Ontario (45%), the least educated (45%) or with
some college/university (48%).
likely to support the Liberals include those aged 35-44 (36%), females (33%),
the least wealthy (40%), living in Toronto (36%), and with a post-graduate
Respondents most likely to support the NDP
include those aged 34 or younger (33%), the least wealthy (28%) or earning
Conservatives still tracking toward
If an election were held today, the
Progressive Conservatives would likely secure 72 seats, more than needed for a
majority in the 122 seat legislature.
The Liberals and the NDP would each secure 25
Horwath popular; Wynne and Brown, not so
Kathleen Wynne’s approval is (15%), and her
disapproval (73%) is almost three-quarters. (12%) do not know whether to
approve or disapprove of the Premier’s performance.
Patrick Brown’s approval is (19%), and his
disapproval is more than a quarter (26%). The majority, (54%), don’t know
enough about Patrick Brown to offer an opinion.
Andrew Horwath is the most popular of the
three leaders with an approval of more than a third (34%), with disapproval of
only a quarter (25%). 4-in-10 (40%) say they do not know about Andrea Horwath.
Brown seen as best for the economy
Almost a third (31%), see Patrick Brown as
the best potential steward of Ontario’s economy, more than 2-in-10 (21%) see
Andrea Horwath as best for the economy, and only (13%) see Kathleen Wynne as
best for the economy.
The plurality of respondents (35%) do not
know which provincial leader would be the best for Ontario’s economy.
Andrea Horwath seen as most trustworthy
Almost a third (29%) see Andrea Horwath as
the most trustworthy of the three provincial leaders, a quarter (25%) see
Patrick Brown as the most trustworthy, and just over 1-in-10 (11%) see Kathleen
Wynne as the most trustworthy.
Brown best premier, Andrea Horwath just
More than a quarter (27%) believe that
Patrick Brown would make the best Premier of Ontario, though Andrea Horwath
(24%) is statistically tied with him on that measure. Kathleen Wynne is well
behind the pair with just over 1-in-10 (13%) saying she would be the best
premier. A quarter (24%) say none of the above would make a good premier, with
(12%) saying they don’t know.
“The Progressive Conservatives continue to hold
a considerable lead in Ontario. While it’s true Ontarians may be somewhat
disengaged in provincial politics between elections, you can be sure the other
parties would be happy to have the numbers we’re seeing for the Progressive
Conservatives right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research.
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
firstname.lastname@example.org or at (416) 960-9603.