It’s a Race: Tory and Ford Virtually Tied

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It’s a Race: Tory and Ford Virtually Tied

Toronto, May 31st – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1035 Toronto voters, amongst those decided and leaning, John Tory (40%) is statistically tied with Doug Ford (38%), who remains undeclared as a candidate.

Tory’s lead over Ford is now only 2 points, which is within the margin of error. It’s down from 11 points in April. (29%: Nov 8; 19%: Feb 6; 16%: Mar 10; 11%: April 5)

Almost a quarter (22%) prefer someone else to either Ford or Tory.

Respondents most likely to support Tory include those aged 45-54 (47%), the least wealthy (41%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (43%) or $80,000-$100,000 (41%), and the most wealthy (44%). Those with some college or university (45%) or a post-graduate degree (43%), and living in Scarborough (45%) are also likely to support the mayor.

Respondents most likely to support Doug Ford include those aged 55-64 (46%) or over 65 (46%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (38%) or $60,000-$80,000 (40%), with a college or university degree (44%), and living in Etobicoke (46%).

Despite the narrowing gap, Tory’s approval up slightly

John Tory’s approval continues to be around fifty-percent, with (50%) responding they approve of the Mayor’s performance, up 3 points since April (47%: April 5), with (31%) responding they disapprove, down 3 points since April (33%: April 5) and (19%) saying they don’t know.

Respondents most likely to approve of the Mayor’s performance include those aged 65+ (58%), males (53%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (54%), the most wealthy (57%), and with a post-graduate degree (54%).

Respondents most likely to disapprove of the Mayor’s performance include those aged 35-44 (42%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%), $40,000-$60,000 (35%), or $80,000-$100,000 (37%).

“Doug Ford and John Tory are virtually tied, which is remarkable given that just six months ago John Tory led Ford by almost thirty-percent. Perhaps what makes this result all the more concerning for the mayor, is that support is galvanizing against him for a candidate that hasn’t even declared yet,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603