PCs Lead, Despite
Perceived Controversies
Liberals and NDP tied for second, well
behind PCs
Toronto, August 29th
– In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 981
Ontario voters, four in ten (40%) say that if an election were held today, they
would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they would support
the NDP, and a quarter (25%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (6%) say
they would support the Green party, while (2%) say they would support another
party.
Respondents most
likely to support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (47%) or 55-64 (49%), males
(49%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (47%) or the most wealthy (47%), the least
educated (44%) and those with some college/university (45%), living in Eastern
Ontario (48%) or the 905 (45%).
Respondents most
likely to support the Liberals include those 34 and younger (33%), females
(32%), with a post-graduate degree, and living in Toronto (28%) or Eeastern
Ontario (29%).
Respondents most likely
to support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (32%), females (31%), earning
$20,000-$40,000 (36%) or $80,000-$100,000 (34%), living in Toronto (34%) or
North-eastern Ontario (32%).
Liberals and NDP tied for second, well
behind PCs
Kathleen Wynne sees approval from fewer than
two in ten (18%) and the disapproval of almost three-quarters (73%). Only (9%)
say they do not know. The premier’s net favourable score is -55.
Patrick Brown sees the approval of a quarter
of Ontarians (25%) and the disapproval of more than a third (34%). Critically
for Brown, more than four in ten (41%) say they do not know. Brown’s net
favourable score is -9.
Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial
leader with approval of more than a third (35%). Just under a third say they disapprove.
However, more than a third (36%) also
say they do not know how they feel about Horwath. Her net favourable score is
+5.
Best premier: Brown tied with none of
the above
More than a quarter (27%) say Patrick Brown would
make the best premier of Ontario, while the same proportion (27%) say that none
of Horwath, Wynne, or Brown, would make the best premier.
Andrea Horwath (21%) is supported by just
over two in ten and Kathleen Wynne is supported by about one sixth (15%). One
in ten (10%) say they do not know.
“While Patrick Brown’s PCs see a slight dip
in support in August, for the most part his support remains steady, despite
perceived controversies.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “Of primary concern for the premier should be her
declining support in Toronto, as she now sits third behind both the Tories and
the NDP. Without the same massive support in Toronto she received in 2014, her
re-election prospects look dim, at best.”
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
