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Ford Announcement: No Effect
on Tory Support
Toronto, September 9th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 658 Toronto voters
after Doug Ford’s mayoral race intention announcement, amongst those decided
and leaning, in a head’s up race between only John Tory and Doug Ford, Tory maintains
the lead over his now declared competitor with the support of about two thirds
(64%) of voters, while Doug Ford secures just over a third (36%).
Respondents most likely to support Tory include those aged
34 and under (66%), 45-54 (65%) or 65+ (71%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (71%) or
$100,000-$250,000 (75%) with a post-graduate degree (74%), living in the former
city of Toronto (69%) or East York (72%), and supporting the provincial Liberal
party (74%).
Respondents most likely to support Doug Ford include those
aged 55-64 (45%), earning less than $20,000 (48%), $20,000 to $40,000 (42%),
$60,000 to $80,000 (45%), the least educated (44%) and those with some college or
university (40%), living in Etobicoke (42%) or York (39%), and supporting the
provincial PCs (56%)
Add Joe Cressy to the ballot, Tory still wins
In a three-way race between Tory, Ford, and councillor Joe Cressy,
little-changes. John Tory would still command a majority of votes (53%), while
Ford retains the support of just over a third (35%). In this three-candidate
scenario Joe Cressy would secure a tenth of the vote (11%).
Respondents most likely to support Tory over Ford and Cressy include
those aged 65+ (65%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (63%), $100,000-$250,000 (62%),
with a post-graduate degree (63%), living in East York (62%), supporting the
provincial Liberals (60%), and NDP (61%).
Respondents most likely to support Ford over Cressy and Tory include
those aged 55-64 (45%), the least wealthy (51%), the least educated (41%),
living in Etobicoke (42%), and supporting the provincial PCs (53%).
Respondents most likely to support Cressy over Tory and Ford include
those aged 34 and younger (18%), living in East York (17%), with some college
or university (15%), and supporting the provincial NDP (20%) or Green Party (27%).
Tory Approval Steady
The majority (53%) of voters once again approve of John Tory’s
performance as mayor, overall. Just over a quarter (24%) disapprove, while 2 in
10 (23%) say they don’t know. John Tory’s net favourable score (approve –
disapprove) is a strong +29.
Tory’s approval is down 1 point (54%: June 22nd) and his disapproval
has likewise dropped 3 points (27%: June 22nd).
“Doug Ford’s declaration appears to have had no
effect on the mayoral horserace – John Tory remains the clear leader,” said Dr.
Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Even adding another candidate
doesn’t shake Tory’s support, and he still wins handily.”
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of
Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
