PCs Hold Clear Lead in Every Region but Toronto, where they're tied

PCs Hold Clear Lead in Every Region, but Toronto, where they're tied

Liberals again dip behind the NDP for third

Toronto, September 28th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 801 Ontario voters, more than four in ten (44%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, and fewer than a quarter (22%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (5%) say they would support the Green party, while (2%) say they would support another party.

Respondents most likely to support the PCs include those aged 55-64 (52%), males (50%), the most wealthy (51%), with some college/university (50%), and living in North-Eastern Ontario (55%),

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those 34 and younger (26%), 45-54 (24%), or 65+ (25%), the least wealthy (31%), or earning $80,000-$100,000 (29%), with a college/university (26%) or post-graduate degree (26%), and living in Toronto (35%),

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (34%), 35-44 (35%), females (30%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (31%), the least educated (32%) or a post-graduate degree (29%), and living in the 905 (31%) or Southwest (29%)

Brown cruising toward massive majority

If an election were held today, Brown is likely to secure an 84 seat majority in the expanded legislature. The NDP would become the official opposition with 26 seats and the Liberals would drop to 12 seats.

Brown and Horwath still unknown by the plurality

Kathleen Wynne sees approval from fewer than one-sixth (15%) and the disapproval of three-quarters (74%). Only (11%) say they do not know. The premier’s net favourable score is -59.

Patrick Brown sees the approval of a quarter of Ontarians (28%) and the disapproval of more than a third (30%). The plurality say that they do not know what to make of Patrick Brown (43%). Brown’s net favourable score is -2.

Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial leader with approval of more than a third (35%). Just under a quarter (24%) say they disapprove.  However, more than a four in ten (41%) also say they do not know how they feel about Horwath. Her net favourable score is +9. 

 

“The Progressive Conservatives have rebounded from a slight dip in August and once again hold a commanding lead over both the Liberals and the NDP.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Brown's PC's have a considerable lead in five of Ontario's six regions, and are tied with the Liberals in Toronto, which would decimate the Ontario Liberal Caucus. Campaigns matter, but as the election grows nearer, every month with a PC lead means it's more likely the vote is solidifying behind Brown.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.