John Tory Almost Doubles Doug Ford Head-To-Head

John Tory Almost Doubles Doug Ford Head-To-Head

Add activist/journalist Desmond Cole into the mix, it reduces the margin, but Tory still leads

 

Toronto, November 24^rd – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 843 Toronto voters, amongst those decided and leaning, two-thirds (66%) say that they would support John Tory over Doug Ford in a head-to-head matchup, with a third (34%) saying they would support Ford.

 

Respondents most likely to say they support John Tory head to head against Doug Ford include those aged 55-64 (75%), earning $80-100,000 (73%) or the most wealthy (74%), with a college/university (72%) or post-graduate (73%) degree, public transit users (72%), living in the former city of Toronto (82%), and supporting the Liberal (79%) or Green Party (77%). 

 

Respondents most likely to support Doug Ford head to head against John Tory include those aged 34 and younger (38%) or 45-54 (38%), earning $20-40,000 (62%), the least educated (51%), living in Etobicoke (48%), and supporting the PCs (50%). 

 

In a three-way race between Tory, Ford, and Cole, Tory still wins

 

In a second scenario, respondents were asked which candidate they would support in a race between John Tory, Doug Ford, and Desmond Cole, the activist and journalist.

 

Amongst those decided and leaning, John Tory (52%) still sees support of the majority, with Doug Ford (32%) retaining a third of support.

 

Desmond Cole sees support of one-sixth (16%) of respondents, taking support primarily from Tory. 

 

Compared to other candidates Forum has pitted against Ford and Tory in a theoretical race, Cole compares favourably, with Joe Cressy receiving one-tenth (Sept 9: 11%) support in a three way race, and statistically tied with Mike Layton’s one-sixth (June 27: 18%)

 

Respondents most likely to support John Tory in this scenario include those aged 55-64 (65%), the most wealthy (60%), college/university (58%) or post-graduate (57%) degree, living in the former city of Toronto (57%) or North York (60%), and supporting the Liberals (65%).

 

Respondents most likely to say they support Doug Ford in this scenario include those aged 34 and younger (37%), earning $20-40,000 (52%), the least educated (49%), living in Etobicoke (41%) or Scarborough (41%), and supporting the PCs (49%).

 

Respondents most likely to say that they support Desmond Cole in this scenario include those aged 34 and younger (24%), earning $80-100,000 (20%) or the most wealthy (17%), with some college/university (19%) or a post-graduate degree (19%), living in the former city of Toronto (27%), and supporting the NDP (28%) or Green Party (31%).

 

Tory approval remains steady, but disapproval ticks up

John Tory retains the approval of more than half (53%), unchanged from September (Sept 9: 53%), but his disapproval is up by 6 points, with almost a third (30%) of respondents saying they disapprove of John Tory (Sept 9: 24%).

Correspondingly, the number of respondents that say they do not know about John Tory’s performance has dropped as well, down to about one-sixth (16%) from almost a quarter (Sept 9: 23%).

 

“Right now, John Tory compares very favourably against Doug Ford, and any theoretical third candidate,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “But, generally, when a third candidate is added, Doug Ford’s support remains mostly static, and it’s Tory’s numbers that suffer. If enough credible progressive candidates enter the race, it could seriously affect John Tory’s chances at re-election.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.