CC image courtesy of Billy Wilson: http://bit.ly/2zTQqcR
PC Lead Narrows but
Still Tracking for Massive Majority
NDP to serve as opposition
Toronto, December 1st – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 861 Ontario voters, amongst
those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (40%) say they would support the PCs, down 5
points since October (Oct 26: 45%).The NDP and Ontario Liberals are statistically tied again, but with a slightly higher share of the vote for the NDP, with a quarter (26%) for the NDP and a quarter (24%) for the Liberals. Since October the NDP are up 4 points (Oct 26: 22%) and the Liberals are unchanged (Oct 26: 24%)
Just under one-tenth (8%) are supporting the Greens, who are up one point (Oct 26: 7%) and
few (2%) say they are supporting another party.
Were this electoral
scenario to play out, the NDP would serve as official opposition to a Progressive
Conservative majority government.
likely to say they support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (51%), the most
wealthy (49%), with some college/university (43%) or a college/university
degree (43%), and living in Southwestern Ontario (48%).
likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (39%) and
35-44 (37%), the least wealthy (35%) and those earning $20-$40,000 (37%), and
with a post-graduate degree (34%).
most likely to say they support the Ontario Liberals include those aged 65+
(34%), earning $40-$60,000 (27%) or $80-$100,000 (30%), with a post-graduate
degree (34%), and living in Toronto (31%).
Wynne unpopular, Brown unknown, Horwath
liked, but also unknown
When asked whether they approve or disapprove
of Kathleen Wynne's performance as premier, one-sixth (15%) say they approve,
three-quarters (74%) say they disapprove, and (10%) say they do not know. Her
net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -59. The premier's approval is effectively
unchanged from September when her net approval score was also -59. (Sept 26: -59)
Patrick Brown sees approval from just under a
third (29%), and disapproval from just over a third (35%), with more than a
third (36%) saying they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus
disapprove) is -6. Brown's approval is down slightly from September, seeing a
drop of four points in is net favourable score. (Sept 26: -2)
Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader,
seeing approval from almost 4 in 10 (38%), and disapproval from more than a
quarter (28%). A third (34%) also say they do not know about Horwath. Her net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove is +10). Horwath's approval has
ticked up slightly since September, two points higher than when last we
measured it. (Sept 26: +2)
Almost no one trusts political promises
Almost zero (1%) say they have a lot of trust
in the promises made by politicians before an election. One quarter (28%) say
they have some trust, while almost half (46%) say they do not have a lot of
trust. A quarter (23%) have no trust at all in pre-election promises.
“Brown's lead has slipped slightly," said
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Despite the dip, he's still
sitting in majority territory, which is a good place to be six months before
the election. One thing that is common to voters, regardless of political
stripe? They don't really trust election promises."
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.