Half of Ontarians Now Say they Support the PCs

| Filed under: Ontario

Half of Ontarians Now Say they Support the PCs

Ontarians divided about Patrick Brown's entry into the race

Toronto, February 17th -  In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 949 Ontario voters, half (49%) say they would support the PCs if an election were held today, an increase of 8 points in just a few weeks (Jan 25: 42%).

The Liberals have the support of about a quarter (24%), similar to the end of January (Jan 25: 27%).

The NDP dip slightly in February to 2 in 10 (19%), which is 4 points from where they were in January (Jan 25: 23%).

The Greens are supported by just under 1 in 10 (7%), similar to January (Jan 25: 6%). Few are supporting another party (2%).

The PCs would claim a massive majority if an election were held today

They would secure 93 seats, with the NDP serving as the official opposition with 21. The Liberals would serve as the third party with 10.

Christine Elliott leads amongst the general public

While the general public doesn't get to vote in the leadership, Christine Elliott would make the best leader of the PC party according to almost one-quarter (22%) of Ontarians. One-sixth (16%) say it would be Doug Ford, with just under one-sixth (14%) saying Caroline Mulroney.

Patrick Brown would make the best leader according to just under one-sixth (13%) tying him with Mulroney and Ford for second place amongst the general public.

Few would support Tanya Granic Allen (5%).

The plurality, about a third, (31%), said they do not know.

The public is divided on Brown's entry into the race

Almost 4 in 10 (38%) say they agree with Patrick Brown's decision to enter the race, while the same proportion (39%) say they disagree.

About one-quarter (22%) say they do not know.

Amongst those that saw or heard anything about the debate, Elliott and Ford won

Only about one-quarter (22%) watched some the debate, while 4 in 10 (39%) said they heard something about it. 4 in 10 (39%) also said they neither saw, nor heard anything about the debate.

Amongst those that said they watched or heard something, Christine Elliott (17%) and Doug Ford (16%) led when Ontarians were asked who won the debate.

Caroline Mulroney (12%) was just back of the leaders, with Tanya Granic Allen (8%) the winner according to fewer than 1 in 10.

A quarter, the plurality, (26%), said nobody won the debate.

And about 2 in 10 (21%) said they do not know who won the debate.

Amongst those decided and leaning Elliot and Mulroney would see the highest support

Half (48%) said they would support the PCs in the next election if Christine Elliot were the leader, a similar proportion to Caroline Mulroney (49%).

In this projection, of the four candidates, it is Mulroney and Elliot that reduce Liberal vote share to its lowest level, with each pushing the Liberals to about one quarter support. (22%).

Ford and Brown would both receive support from more than 4 in 10 (43%) but they don't appeal to quite as many leaning Liberal voters.


“The constant stream of media attention and fervor surrounding the leadership race, has done nothing but help the Progressive Conservatives, with almost half of Ontarians now saying they would support the PCs if an election were held today,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "Even Patrick Brown's re-entry into the race isn't yet showing as a negative, with just as many people saying they agree with the decision as disagree. Right now it looks as any of the four frontrunners would secure a majority for the PCs in the next election."

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.