Budget a Lifeline for Liberals?
Toronto, March
29th - In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 728 Ontario voters, the gap between the Progressive
Conservatives and Ontario Liberals has narrowed substantially. The Progressive
Conservatives, who have led for the better part of a year now have a race on
their hands with a resurgence from the Liberal party. The NDP also benefit from
the PC’s declining support as well.
The PCs see support from decided and
leaning voters of about one-third (36%), while the Liberals (29%) are just
under a third, and the NDP (26%) are at one-quarter.
If an election were held today, the PCs
would win a minority government of 57 seats. The Liberals would serve as
opposition with 36 seats and the NDP would win 31.
[[Chart 2792]]
Three-quarters
heard at least something about the budget
A third (34%) have heard a lot about the
budget, while 4 in 10 (42%) have heard some. About one-sixth (14%) have heard
not a lot, while 1 in 10 (9%) say they’ve heard almost nothing.
4 in 10
disapprove of the budget
Only a quarter (24%) say they approve, with
the plurality (44%) saying they disapprove. A third (32%) said they do not know
whether they approve or disapprove.
Plurality
say they are less likely to vote Liberal
Almost half (45%) say they are less likely to
vote Liberal, with a quarter (25%) saying it will have no effect on their vote,
and 2 in 10 (18%) saying they are more likely to vote liberal. About 1 in 10
(9%) say they do not know.
More
than a third say it’s bad for economy
A third (38%) say it will be bad for the
economy and one-fifth saying (22%) saying it will be good. A quarter (26%) say
it will be neither, and one-sixth (15%) say they do not know.
Ontarians
divided on a balanced budget versus more spending on programs and services
Just over half (56%) say they prefer a
balanced budget to the 4 in 10 (44%) who say they prefer more spending on
programs and services.
Overall,
Ontarians are supportive of many specific elements of the budget
Free
daycare sees approval from half (53%) with 4 in 10 (41%) saying they
disapprove. Few say they do not know (5%).
Spending more on special education teachers
and assistants sees approval from more than half (55%) and disapproval from a
third (34%). 1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know.
Spending money to expand capacity at SickKids
sees approval from almost two-thirds (59%) and disapproval from just
one-quarter (25%). One sixth (16%) do not know.
Spending to reduce overcrowding at hospitals
sees approval from three-quarters (74%) and disapproval from only one-sixth
(17%). Only (9%) say they don’t know.
Eliminating co-pay/deductibles from senior
prescriptions sees approval from just under two-thirds (61%) and disapproval
from about one-quarter (28%). Only (11%) say they do not know.
Expanding broadband internet in the North and
rural communities sees approval from half (49%) with 4 in 10 (38%) saying they
disapprove. One-sixth (14%) say they do not know.
Two-thirds (68%) say they approve of
improving home care, while one-fifth (21%) say they disapprove. (12%) say they
do not know.
Two-thirds (65%) say they approve of offering
seniors a benefit to help with maintenance to stay in their homes longer. A
quarter (24%) disapprove and (11%) say they do not know.
“The increase in support for the Liberals is
as drastic as it is sudden,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. "We’ve shown nothing but a sea of blue in
Ontario for more than a year, with the Liberals swapping between second and
third. If the Liberals can turn this spark of life into momentum, it could open
the door just slightly toward a competitive race in June. This budget looks
like a good start for the provincial Liberals.”
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
