It still looks like a PC majority…
…but the race is tightening. Slightly.
Toronto, May
9th - In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 777 Ontario voters, the Progressive
Conservatives would secure support from 4 in 10 (40%), the Liberals would
secure about one-quarter (22%), and the NDP would see support from a third
(33%)
Few (4%) say they would support either
the Green Party, or another party (2%).
PC
majority
If the election were held today, we
project these results would see a PC majority government with 75 seats. The NDP
would serve as opposition with 37, and the Liberals would serve as third party
with 12.
NDP
leads as second choice
About one-quarter (23%) say that they have
the NDP as their second choice, with about one-fifth (19%) saying they would
support the Greens.
About one-sixth (14%) say the Liberals are
their second choice, with about 1 in 10 (9%) saying the PCs.
Few (3%) say another party would be their
second choice, with a third (31%) saying they don’t have a second choice.
4 in 10
say they are least likely to support the Liberals
4 in 10 (41%) say the Liberals are the party
they are least likely to vote for, with the Conservatives the least likely
choice for a third (32%).
Few (6%) say the NDP, or the Greens (8%) are
their least likely choice.
About 1 in 10 say no party is their least likely choice (12%).
Horwath approval highest
Kathleen Wynne’s approval
remains low, with only one-fifth (20%) saying they approve, with almost three-quarters
(71%) say they disapprove. 1 in 10 (10%) say they do not know. Her net favourable
score is -51 (approve – disapprove)
Doug Ford sees
approval from one-third (34%), and disapproval from half (49%). About one-sixth
(17%) say they do not know. His net favourable score is -15.
Horwath’s approval is
4 in 10 (42%), with one-quarter (25%) saying they disapprove, and a third (33%)
saying they do not know.
“The Conservatives
are still leading, which is a great place to be on day one,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. "But the NDP support has strengthened in the
waning days of the province’s forty-first parliament. Their support isn’t
strong enough to challenge Doug Ford’s lead yet…but it should be of concern to
Ford and his team.”
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
