Public Safety to Factor into the Vote of 3 in 4 Torontonians

| Filed under: Toronto, Social Issues

Public Safety to Factor into the Vote of 3 in 4 Torontonians

Toronto, August 2nd, 2018 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 2144 Toronto voters, three-quarters (TOP2: 74%) say that public safety will be important to their vote, with 4 in 10 (42%) saying it will be very important.

 

One-fifth (BTM2: 21%) say that it won’t be important to their vote.

 

Few either said they did not know (4%) if it would be important or said they don’t plan to vote (1%).

 

Respondents most likely to say that public safety will be important to their vote include those aged 55-64 (79%) or 65+ (79%), females (79%), the least educated (77%) or with a college/university degree (74%), living in North York (76%) or Scarborough (79%), and earning $20,000-$40,000 (77%), $40,000-$60,000 (77%), $60,000-$80,000 (77%), or $80,000-$100,000 (75%).

 

More than 4 in 10 (46%) who said that public safety would be important to their vote, and said they felt unsafe living in Toronto, identified gun crime as the cause.

 

Three-quarters feel safe in living Toronto

 

Living in Toronto feels safe for three-quarters (TOP2: 74%) of Torontonians, with a third (36%) saying they feel very safe.

 

One quarter (BTM2: 26%) say they do not feel safe living in Toronto, with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they don’t feel safe at all.

 

Respondents most likely to say they feel safe living in Toronto (TOP2) include those aged 65+ (81%), with a college/university (77%) or post-graduate degree (78%) and living in the Former City of Toronto (80%), East York (77%), or North York (77%), and earning $80,000-$100,000 (87%).

 

Respondents most likely to say they do not feel safe living in Toronto (BTM2) include those aged 34 and younger (28%) or 55-64 (30%), the least educated (35%), living in York (35%), and the least wealthy (34%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%).

 

 Gun Crime a fear

 

Respondents who said that they do not feel safe living in Toronto were asked a follow up question probing why that might be.

 

The plurality (43%) said it was because of gun crime. One-fifth (20%) said it was because of gang activity, and one-tenth (13%) said it was due to roads or traffic.

 

Another reason was chosen by 1 in 10 (9%), while few attributed it to living in a bad neighbourhood (5%), identified as a victim of crime or as one who knows a victim of crime (5%), city size (3%), or sexual harassment (2%).

 

More than 8 in 10 feel safe in their neighbourhood

 

(TOP2: 84%) of respondents said they feel safe in their local neighbourhood, with half (53%) saying they feel very safe.

 

Only one-sixth (BTM2: 16%) said they do not feel safe in their local neighbourhood.

 

Respondents most likely to say they feel safe in their local neighbourhood (TOP2) include those aged 65+ (89%), with a college/university (87%) or post-graduate (88%) degree, and living in the Former City of Toronto (88%).

 

Respondents most like to say they do not feel safe in their local neighbourhood (BTM2) include those aged 34 and younger (21%) or 55-64 (20%), the least educated (26%), and living in North York (18%), York (20%), or Scarborough (18%).

 

Opinion divided on what, if anything, could improve public safety

 

Opinion on the subject of what would improve public safety the most is mixed.

 

One-quarter (25%) said that tougher restrictions on firearms would improve public safety the most, while one-fifth (19%) said it was better mental health treatment.

 

Another fifth (17%) said more social programs for at risk youth.

 

1 in 10 (11%) say improved collaboration between communities and police would be the best improvement to public safety, while a similar proportion (9%) said

it would be improved police presence throughout the city.

 

1 in 10 (7%) also said that expanded use of surveillance technology or (7%) another reason would improve it the most.

 

Few (5%) thought the solution was more money for police.

 

 

Torontonians have strong confidence in the Toronto Police Service

 

Three-quarters (TOP2: 77%) say they have confidence in the police, with more than a third (37%) saying they have a lot of confidence.

 

One-fifth (BTM2: 20%) said they don’t have confidence in the police, with 1 in 10 (8%) saying they had no confidence at all.

 

Few (3%) said they do not know.

 

 

Half think banning handguns in Toronto will reduce gun violence

 

Half (TOP2: 50%) say banning handguns in Toronto will reduce gun violence in the city, with one-fifth (18%) saying it will reduce gun violence a lot.

 

4 in 10 (38%) said a handgun ban won’t reduce gun violence, with one-fifth (20%) saying it won’t reduce gun violence at all.

 

 

Few are familiar with the Toronto Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy

 

Only a third (30%) are aware of TAVIS, the Toronto Anti-Violence Intervention Strategy, with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they are very aware.

 

More than two-thirds (70%) say they are not aware of TAVIS, with half (53%) saying they are not at all aware.

 

 

Almost three-quarters think there have been more shootings in 2018

 

7 in 10 (70%) think 2018 has had more shootings than 2017, while about one-fifth (18%) said there’s been about the same number.

 

About 1 in 20 (4%) said there’s been fewer shootings, and about 1 in 10 (8%) said they did not know.

 

 

Tory Approval

 

Respondents most likely to say they approve of Tory include those aged 65+ (66%), females (61%), those with a post-graduate-degree (62%), and the most wealthy (71%).

 

8 in 10 (TOP2: 81%) of those that approve of Tory say they feel safe living in Toronto, and 9 in 10 (89%) feel safe in their local neighbourhoods.

 

The plurality of the people that approve of John Tory, but also say they don’t feel safe living in Toronto, say that gun crime (42%) is what is making them feel unsafe.

 

Those that approve of John Tory are more likely than average to feel unsafe due to roads or traffic (18%).

 

Respondents most likely to say they disapprove of Tory include those aged 35-44 (33%), males (30%), living in Etobicoke (32%), and the least wealthy (34%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (36%).

 

Respondents that disapprove of Tory are less likely to feel safe living in Toronto with only 6 in 10 (TOP2: 60%) saying they feel safe, and (BTM2: 40%) 4 in 10 saying they do not.

 

Three-quarters of those that disapprove of Tory (TOP2: 73%) say they feel safe in their local neighbourhood, with a quarter (BTM2: 27%) saying they do not.

 

Respondents that say they disapprove of John Tory, but also say they don’t feel safe living in Toronto, say that gun crime (42%) is what is making them feel unsafe. But these respondents are more likely than average (26%) to say gang activity is what is making them feel unsafe.

 

“In the wake of much publicized incidents in the city, public safety is top of mind for many Torontonians, and may influence the ballot of almost three-quarters of voters,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “But opinion on how to improve public safety is divided, with no consensus on a path forward. Voters may gravitate toward a mayoral candidate that has a clear and cohesive plan toward keeping them safe, but thus far, no campaign has seized the issue. How the candidates approach public safety, whether it be proposals for gun control, social programs, or something else, could offer voters a window into the type of government each candidate aspires to run."

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.