The Forum Poll™ - Plurality says the current number of immigrants is okay, but...

CAQ Diving Toward Minority

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CAQ Diving Toward Minority

Plurality says the current number of immigrants is okay, but half of CAQ supporters say fewer immigrants should be allowed

Toronto, September 20th, 2018  – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1274 Québec voters, amongst those decided and leaning, CAQ sees support from a third (32%) of voters, down ten points since August (Aug 24: 42%).

Support for the PLQ is steady at (22%), unchanged since August (Aug 24: 22%).

The PQ has also remained steady (24%) since August (Aug 24: 21%).

QS, however, has seen a jump, now supported by one-fifth (19%) of voters, up 6 points since August (Aug 24: 13%).

Few (2%) say they are supporting other parties.


CAQ minority

Projecting these results onto the electoral map, if an election were held today, CAQ would secure a minority government with 58 seats. The PLQ would serve as opposition with 38, and the PQ would win 23.

QS would win 6.

Legault disapproval way up, Lisée approval up too

Premier Phillipe Couillard’s current approval (27%) (Aug 24: 27%) remains unchanged since the beginning of the campaign, as is his disapproval (66%) (Aug 24: 64%)

Only 1 in 10 (8%) say they do not know about the premier.

Premier Couillard's net favourable score (approve - disapprove) is -39, down two points since August (Aug 24: -37).

Jean-François Lisée’s approval has risen considerably since August, with more than 4 in 10 (44%) saying they approve, up from a third in August (Aug 24: 35%).

Lisée’s disapproval is down as well, with a third (35%) saying they disapprove, down from 4 in 10 (Aug 24: 40%).

One-fifth currently say they do not know about Lisée (21%).

His net favourable score is +9, a 14 point improvement since August (Aug 24: -5).

François Legault’s approval has dropped 7 points, with 4 in 10 (41%) saying they approve, down from about half (Aug 24: 48%). Legault’s disapproval has spiked as well, with more than 4 in 10 (44%) saying they disapprove, up from a third (Aug 24: 33%).

One-sixth say they do not know (15%) about Legault.

His net favourable score is -3, down 18 points (Aug 24: +15).

Almost two-thirds say they watched the September 13th debate

Almost two-thirds (60%) say they watched the debate, while a quarter (25%) said they heard about the debate.

Only one-sixth (15%) said they didn’t watch or hear anything about the debate.

Almost a third say Lisée won

Almost a third (29%) of those who watched or heard about the debate, said Lisée won. About one-fifth said it was Legault (18%) or Massé (17%).

About 1 in 10 (9%) said it was Couillard.

Almost a quarter (22%) said there were no winners of the debate, while a few (5%) said they did not know.


Plurality says the current number of immigrants is okay, but half of CAQ supporters say fewer immigrants should be allowed

More than 4 in 10 (44%) say that the province should keep the number of immigrants allowed into Québec the same, while a third (32%) said fewer immigrants should be allowed. About one-fifth (19%) said more immigrants should be allowed, while a few (5%) said they did not know about how many immigrants should be allowed.

Respondents most likely to say that the number of immigrants should be kept the same include those aged 34 and younger (46%) and those aged 65+ (47%), females (47%), the most wealthy (57%), supporting the PLQ (46%), PQ (48%), or QS (49%), and living in Montréal (45%) or Québec City (47%).

Respondents most likely to say fewer immigrants should be allowed includes those aged 45-54 (37%) or 55-64 (35%), males (35%), earning $20,000- $40,000 (34%), $40,000-$60,000 (34%), or $80,000-$100,000 (36%), supporting the CAQ (53%), and living in ROQ (35%) or South Shore (37%).


Respondents most likely to say more immigrants should be allowed includes those aged 34 and younger (23%) or 35-44 (23%), earning $40,000-$60,000 (24%), supporting the PLQ (30%) or QS (31%), and living in Montréal (20%) or Québec City (22%).

Two-thirds support language test for immigrants

More than 6 in 10 (64%) say they approve of a language test for immigrants within three years of their arrival in Québec, while a quarter (26%) say they disapprove.

1 in 10 (10%) say they do not know.

Almost two-thirds support a $15 minimum wage

6 in 10 (62%) say they approve of raising the minimum wage to $15, while a third (30%) say they disapprove.

1 in 10 (7%) say they do not know.

Three-quarters would support raising the wages of nurses

Three-quarters (74%) say they approve of raising the wages of nurses, with only one-sixth (15%) saying they disapprove.

1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know.


“Concern may be growing in the CAQ campaign, with support for the party dropping, and the approval ratings for their leader going in the wrong direction,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. "The issue of immigration may be hurting Legault, with about two-thirds preferring more immigrants, or about the same amount. If the other parties continue hammering the CAQ on the issue, the election may turn into a real race.”

 

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.