Progressive Conservatives projected to win the Ontario provincial election

| Filed under: Ontario, Toronto

Toronto, June 1st, 2022 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ on June 1st of 1032 eligible Ontario voters, amongst those decided and leaning, 40.3% say they support the Progressive Conservatives (PCs). 24.5% of voters say they support the Liberals, 23.2% support the New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.5% support the Greens, and 5.5% support another party.

Current seat projections suggest PCs are on track to secure 86 seats, enough to form a majority government, with the NDP to secure 31 seats, the Liberals to secure 6 seats, and the Greens to secure 1 seats.


Gender Differences

Males are significantly more likely to support the PCs than females, with 50% of males and 32% of females supporting the PCs. Likewise, females were more likely to support the Liberals (28% vs. 21%), the NDP (28% vs 18%), and the Greens (7% vs. 6%) than males. Males, however, were more likely indicate that they would support another party than females (6% vs. 5%).


Age Differences

Those over the age of 45 are also most likely to vote PC, with 44% of voters between 45 and 54, 43% of voters between 55 and 64, and 41% of voters 65 and older supporting the PCs.

Those under the age of 44, however, are most likely to vote NDP, with 29% of voters between 35 to 44, and 28% of voters under the age of 34 supporting the NDP.


Regional Differences

In Eastern Ontario, the PCs have the lead with 37% of the vote, followed by the NDP (30%), Liberals (26%), and the Greens (5%).

In the Toronto 416 area, the PCs have the lead with 42% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (29%), the NDP (18%), and the Greens (5%).

In the Toronto 905 area, the PCs have the lead with 41% of the vote, followed by the Liberals (25%), the NDP (22%), and the Greens (7%). 

In the southwestern Ontario region, the PCs have the lead with 36% of the vote, followed by the NDP (27%), the Liberals (22%), and the Greens (6%).

In the Northern Ontario region, the PCs have the lead with 48% of the vote, followed by the NDP (21%), Liberals (18%), and the Greens (8%).

 

One-third of voters think Doug Ford would make the best premier

When asked regardless of which party you would vote for, who would make the best premier, 42% of voters chose Doug Ford, followed by Andrea Horwath (17%) and  Steven Del Duca (16%).

 

Job approval of party leaders

When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Doug Ford is doing as premier, 39% of respondents said they approved. When asked whether they approve or disapprove of the job Andrea Horwath and Steven Del Duca are doing as leaders of their respective parties, 31% approve of Horwath, and 19% approve of Del Duca.

 

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1032 randomly selected eligible voters across Ontario. The poll was conducted on June 1st, 2022. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate.  Margins of error for subsample and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms.

Forum Research follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/