Hello Toronto by Robert is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Licence.
Trudeau seen as debate winner in
Two thirds saw or heard
TORONTO AUGUST 7th- In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1016 Toronto voters the morning
and afternoon after the first federal leaders’ debate of the election, two
thirds saw or heard some of the broadcast (69%), and this is most common to the
older groups (55 to 64 - 79%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 79%), New Democrats
(80%), in Toronto (76%) and among strong supporters of their respective parties
Trudeau seen as winner
Among those who saw the debate, about one quarter think
Justin Trudeau won (23%), compared to fewer than a fifth who think this of
Stephen Harper (17%), Tom Mulcair (15%) or Elizabeth May (10%). One quarter say
no one won the debate (25%). Among Conservatives, just more than half thought
their leader won (58%), while one half of Liberals thought Trudeau won (47%).
Just one third of New Democrats think Tom Mulcair won the debate (33%) and one
sixth think Justin Trudeau did (14%). One fifth of New Democrats think
Elizabeth May won (19%). Trudeau does especially well in North York (31%) and
Peel region (27%). Harper does well in Etobicoke (27%). Mulcair may do slightly
better in East York (30% - caution: very small base size).
Debate moves vote very
Prior to the debate, the Liberals have a healthy lead in
voter preference of more than one third (37%) to 3-in-10 for the Conservatives
and NDP (30% each). After the debate is over, among those who saw the
broadcast, the Liberals hold their share (38%), the NDP stay stable (30%) and
the Conservatives lose two points (28%). It is interesting to note that two
thirds of Conservatives and Liberals say they are strong supporters of their
parties (65% and 66% respectively), yet just less than half of New Democrats
are committed (47%).
Two thirds say debate won’t
change eventual vote
Two thirds of those who saw the debates say nothing they saw
or heard would change their minds about the way they would vote (69%), and just
fewer than a quarter said they might change their minds (22%). It is among
those who would have voted NDP before the debate that the largest group say
their minds might change (27%). Among those voting for the NDP after the
debate, as many as a third say their minds might change (32%).
Plurality are worse off now
than 4 years ago
More than a third of Toronto voters say they are worse off
now than they were four years ago (36%), and this is especially the case among
the mid aged (45 to 64 - 43%), mid income groups ($40K to $80K - 44%), among
Liberals (42%) and New Democrats (45%)
but not among Conservatives (15%), in Peel Region and Scarborough (43% each)
and among those who say the debate changed their vote (49%).
“We have to be careful, because this poll was conducted
between 10 AM and 3 PM and not everyone is home at that time, but it looks
like, number one, the Liberals have a lead in Toronto, despite the NDP surge,
and, two, that Justin Trudeau was seen to be the winner of the debate. There is
also evidence that he may have converted some soft NDP votes," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
or at (416) 960-9603.