Liberal and PCs still in tight race in Ontario

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Liberal and PCs still in tight race in Ontario

NDP fall back, slim Liberal majority seen

TORONTO JUNE 5th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1022 Ontario voters, relatively equal proportions, just less than four tenths each, will vote Liberal (39%) or PC (37%) in the upcoming election June 12th. This represents an incremental increase in vote share for both parties since the last time we polled (May 28, Liberals 36%, PCs 36%), which is coupled with a reciprocal decrease in the NDP vote from one fifth (20%) on May 28 to less than this today (17%). Few will vote Green (6%) or for any other party (1%).

The Liberal vote is characteristic of Gen X (45 to 54 - 43%), females (44%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 50%) and those in the Toronto 416 area code (45%). The PC vote is common to the oldest (46%), males (43%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 42%) in eastern Ontario (49%). The NDP vote is strongest among the youngest (25%), females (20%), the least wealthy (27%) and those in Toronto 416 (21%). Of note, one quarter of past NDP voters will vote Liberal this time (24%), and, in fact, just more than half will vote NDP again (57%).

Slim Liberal majority in the cards

If these results are projected up to seats in a 107 seat Legislature, the Liberals would take a 2 seat majority of 57 (up from 50 on May 28), to 39 for the PCs (down from 42 last week). The NDP would take just 11 seats, down from 15.

Kathleen Wynne seen to make the best Premier, strong gender gap

In a ranking of best person for Premier, Kathleen Wynne continues to lead with a third of the vote (32% this week, 31% last week), while just more than a quarter think Tim Hudak best (26% now, 28% last week). Fewer see Andrea Horwath as Premier material (18% now and last week). Females are much more likely to pick Wynne on this measure (37%) than Hudak (21%), while men are more likely to pick Hudak (31%) than Wynne (28%). Horwath appeals equally across genders (males - 18%, females - 19%).

Despite predictions to the contrary, this remains a tight race, at least for Kathleen Wynne and Tim Hudak. It appears that voters have begun to blame Andrea Horwath for getting us into an election which may not change the political landscape at all, and this could be hurting her," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.