PCs with solid lead over Liberals in Ontario
PC minority government seen
TORONTO APRIL 7th, 2014 - In a random sampling of
public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 928 Ontario voters, almost
4-in-10 will vote PC if a provincial election were held today (38%), compared
to just more than 3-in-10 who will vote Liberal (31%). This represents a
reversal of findings from last month, when the Liberals held a slim lead (March
24 - Liberals 35%, PCs 32%). Today, the NDP would take just less than a quarter
of the vote (23%), similar to last month (25%). Few will vote Green (7%) or for
any other party (1%). The Liberals hold a strong lead in Toronto 416 (44% to
27%) but nowhere else. The PC vote is the "stickiest" in that more
past PC voters will vote their party again (86%) than is the case among past
Liberals (66%) or New Democrats (70%).
PC minority in the cards
If these results are
projected up to seats in a 107 seat legislature, the PCs would capture a
minority of 49, well up from 29 last month. The Liberals would take 45 seats,
down from 66 last month, while the NDP would take just 13 seats, stable from 12
NDP is popular second choice party
In total Ontarians prefer the
NDP as their second choice party (25%), followed by the Liberals (18%) and distantly
by the PCs (8%). One seventh would pick the Greens second (15%). Among PCs, the
NDP is marginally the most popular second party (22%), while it is much more so
among Liberals (48%). Among New Democrats, the Liberals are the favoured second
PCs have the highest negatives, NDP and Greens the lowest
The PCs are the party most
commonly mentioned as the one Ontarians would never vote for (35%), followed by
the Liberals (24%) and the NDP and Greens (11% and 10%, respectively). PC
voters are most likely to say they will never vote Liberal (51%), while Liberal
voters return the favour (62% would never vote PC). NDP voters are far more
likely to reject the PC Party (58%) than the Liberals (14%). Few reject the
Hudak's favourables up slightly
More than one quarter approve
of Tim Hudak (27%), up from less than this last month (March 24 - 23%), and his
net favourable (approve minus disapprove ) is up slightly from -29 to -23.
Kathleen Wynne is approved of by one third (34%), steady from last month (34%),
and her net is a relatively negative -15. Andrea Horwath has the approval of
4-in-10 (40%), steady since last month (38%) and her net is a positive +6.
Wynne still seen to make best Premier
Kathleen Wynne is slightly
more likely (26%) than Tim Hudak (24%) to be seen as the best Premier, while
Andrea Horwath, for all her high approval ratings, trails (15%). One fifth say
no one is up to the task (20%) and just fewer have no opinion (15%).
PCs will vote for sound stewardship, lower taxes; Liberals/NDP will vote
for jobs and growth
When asked the most important
issue in the next election, PC voters are relatively equally likely to say
sound economic management (28%) or relieving the tax burden on the middle class
(25%). Liberal supporters, on the other hand, are most likely to cite promoting
jobs and growth as the most important issue (30%). New Democrats also focus on
jobs and growth (24%) more than other issues.
Just one half consider themselves middle class
half of Ontarians feel they belong to the middle class (53%), while about one
quarter claim to be working class (27%). Very few assume the mantle of the
upper class (5%), while one tenth claim to be something else (12%), and few
don't have an opinion (4%). Curiously, the wealthiest are the most likely to
claim middle class status ($80K to $100K - 64%, $100K to $250K - 74%). Claimed
status doesn't vary strongly by party affiliation, with the exception that
Liberals are less likely to say they are working class (21%) than are PC supporters
(29%) or New Democrats (28%).
Fewer now want NDP to support government
Four-in-ten Ontario voters
want the NDP to continue supporting the government (40%), down slightly from
last month (42%), while those who want the NDP to bring down the government
have increased a similar slight amount (from 44% to 46%), with the result that
bringing down the government is now significantly preferred to propping it up.
The wide majority of PC voters want support to end (79%) whereas a similar
proportion of Liberals want support to continue (72%). Among NDP voters,
however, the majority want to keep supporting the Liberals (51%) as opposed to
bringing them down (41%).
Fewer now think Wynne knew of e-mail deletions
Fewer than one half of
Ontario voters now think Kathleen Wynne knew of the deletion of the e-mails
about the cancelled gas plants (45%), compared to more than half who thought
this last summer (July 23 - 52%). Of these, however, the same proportion, just
less than half, think she personally ordered the deletions herself now (47%)
and then (45%).
One half now think a crime was committed during gas plant controversy
One half of Ontario voters
believe the provincial government committed a crime at some points during the
gas plant cancellation controversy (49%), and this is up sharply since the fall
(October 26, 2013 - 43%). Now, as few as one eighth do not think a crime
was committed (16%), down from almost a quarter in the fall (22%), while a
third have no opinion (35%).
clear the recent revelations about criminal charges in the gas plant affair
have tarnished the Premier's image more than this scandal has already, and the
tide may finally begin to be turning against her. In an election situation, she
needs to continue to hammer the jobs and growth message, because that's what
Liberals (and New Democrats) want to hear. They're not turned on by the low tax
message. Also, all three parties should pay more lip service to the working
class, not just the middle class, because the working class is alive and well
in Ontario," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and
founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at email@example.com or at (416) 960-9603.