Guthrie has twice the approval of Farbridge
TORONTO AUGUST 26th, 2014 -
In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 891 Guelph
voters, well more than a third will vote for Cam Guthrie in the municipal
election of October 27 (36%), compared to one fifth who will vote to re-elect
Mayor Karen Farbridge (21%). Jason Blokhuis attracts less than a twentieth of
the vote (4%) and no other candidate gets a significant vote share. More than a
third are still undecided (36%). Cam Guthrie's support is common to the oldest
(44%), lower income groups ($20K to $40K - 45%), the least educated (secondary school
or less - 48%), those without kids (40%) and provincial PC voters (61%).
Farbridge's vote is characterized by younger groups (35 to 44 - 26%), males
(23%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 27%), the best educated (post grad -
36%) and provincial Liberals (37%).
Guthrie with twice the approval of
Farbridge
Among the 8-in-10 voters who are aware of him (79%), fully
three quarters approve of Cam Guthrie (73%), compared to just more than a third
who approve of the job Karen Farbridge is doing as mayor (37%). Awareness of
any of the other candidates is limited, as is their approval, with the
exception of Andrew Donovan, of whom just one seventh are aware (15%) but one
half approve (52%).
3-in-10 will vote online
Three-in-ten voters will cast their ballot online in this
election (29%), and this intention is common to the younger voters (less than
35 - 34%, 35 to 44 - 36%), the wealthiest ($80K to $100K - 38%, $100K to $250K
- 39%), property owners (33%), the best educated (38%), mothers (37%),
provincial Liberals (34%) and Green voters (38%), and those who support Karen
Farbridge (35%).
Opinion split on new South End Rec
Centre
Relatively equal proportions support (44%) or oppose (48%)
spending tax dollars on a South End Recreation Centre during this term, while
about one fifth have no opinion (7%). Mayor Farbridge's supporters are more
likely to favour the idea (55%) than are Guthrie voters (39%).
Majority disapprove of new library now
The majority, close to 6-in-10 (58%) disapprove of spending
tax dollars during this term on a new library downtown, while just more than a
third approve (36%). One fifth are undecided (6%). Farbridge voters are far
more supportive (67%) than Guthrie voters (14%)
One half do not expect tax increase over
inflation
One half the voters in Guelph do not expect to see property
tax increases over the rate of inflation during this term (52%), while 4-in-10
expect to see them (42%). One fifth do not know (6%).
Transit lockout doesn't affect vote,
wrongful dismissal suit does
Just 4-in-10 voters say the transit lockout will affect
their vote (40%), while more than half say it will not (52%). In contrast, the
majority say the wrongful dismissal suit connected with the building of city
hall will affect their vote (53%), while the minority say it won't (38%).
Guthrie supporters are more likely to say the lockout will affect their vote (46%)
than will Farbridge voters (15%), and this is especially the case with the
wrongful dismissal suit (Guthrie voters - 75%, Farbridge voters - 11%).
"It looks like the controversies
of her administration have caught up with her, and Karen Farbridge may have to
surrender her chain of office. Cam Guthrie has obviously tapped into a vein of
conservative-leaning support that sees big money city-building projects as
unnecessary," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
