All tied up in New Brunswick

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Progressive Conservatives to take most seats

TORONTO September 21st, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ the day before the provincial election among 1326 New Brunswick voters, exactly equal proportions, 4-in-10, will vote for Brian Gallant's Liberals or David Alward's Progressive Conservatives (40% each). This stands in contrast to last week, when the Liberals held a healthy lead (September 11, Liberals - 42%, Progressive Conservatives - 32%). The NDP will take about one tenth of the vote (12%) and this hasn't changed since last week (September 11 - 13%). The Green Party will take half this proportion of votes (6%) and other parties will take very few (2%).

The Progressive Conservative vote is especially common to gen X (45 to 54 - 45%), the wealthiest (50%) and those in the Bay of Fundy/St John region (48%).

The Liberal vote is common to younger voters (35 to 44 - 46%), the least wealthy (49%), the least educated (45%), Francophones (53%) and those in the East Coast/Moncton region (46%).

Of note, one fifth of past Progressive Conservative voters will support the Liberals this time (20%) and one fifth of past Liberals will return the favour (21%). One third of past New Democrat voters will vote Liberal this time (34%) and, indeed, only slightly more will vote NDP again (39%).

Progressive Conservatives set to take more seats

If these results are projected up to seats in the new 49 seat Legislative Assembly, the Progressive Conservatives would take 26 to 23 for the Liberals, thereby retaining power.

Alward's favourables up sharply, Gallant's up, Cardy's down

Premier Alward has seen his approval improve from one quarter a week ago (September 11 - 26%) to more than a third today (35%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) has improved from -37 to -21. Brian Gallant's approval rating has improved slightly from 3-in-10 last week (29%) to more than a third today (36%), and his net score has improved slightly from -16 to -10. Dominic Cardy has seen his approval decline slightly from close to 4-in-10 last week (38%) to one third today (34%), and his net has declined considerably from +14 to -5.

As we said last week, there is danger at the top of the polls. Stay there too long and you're a tempting target, and it appears Brian Gallant has brought some friendly fire with his ill-prepared CBC interview. This one has frankly become too close to call," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.