Liberal lead
tightens again as nation goes to war
Slim Conservative minority seen
TORONTO OCTOBER
6th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum
Poll™ among 1504 Canadian voters, close to 4-in-10 will vote Liberal if the
federal election were held today (38%), compared to just more than a third who
will vote Conservative (34%). This 4 point lead stands in contrast to the 6
point lead measured last month (September 7, Liberals - 40%, Conservatives -
34%) and the 9 point lead seen in August
(August 20, Liberals - 41%, Conservatives - 32%). The lead was 12 points in
July. One fifth will vote NDP now (19%) stable from past months (September -
18%, August - 17%). Few will vote Green (4%), Bloc Quebecois (4%) or for any
other party (1%). One third of those who voted for the NDP in the last federal
election will vote Liberal this time (36%), and only just more than half will
vote New Democrat again (57%).
Very slim Conservative minority government seen
If these results are projected up to seat counts in the
current 308 seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would take 132 to 130 for
the Liberals, and this is a sharp reversal from last month, when the Liberals
were projected to take 162 seats to 113 for the Conservatives. The NDP will
take 44 seats, up from 30 last month. The Bloc and the Greens would each take a
single seat.
Mulcair favourables up slightly, others stable
Thomas Mulcair has seen his approval rating increase
slightly from just less than 4-in-10 (38%) to just more than this (42%) and his
net favourable rating (approve minus disapprove) has increased from +6 to +11.
In the case of both Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, approval scores have not
changed since last month (34% and 44%, respectively). The net scores for both
have not changed significantly (-23 and +4, respectively).
"We are seeing a
slow but measurable trend towards parity between the two leading parties. The
Liberals now lead the Conservatives by such a slight amount, any change will
leave the parties tied. This hasn't happened because the Conservatives' chances
have improved, but because the Liberals attract very slightly less support each
month, and this may be caused by their implied opposition to taking action
against ISIS in the mideast," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
