No change in party standings; slim
Liberal majority seen if election held today
In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1572 Canadian
voters, 4-in-10 would vote Liberal if the election were held today (39%), while
3-in-10 would vote Conservative (30%), and these findings have not changed
since last month (March 29 - Liberals 39%, Conservatives - 29%). The NDP will
take one fifth of the vote (20%), down very slightly from last month (22%). Few
would vote Green (4%) or Bloc Quebecois (6%) or for any other party (1%). The
Liberal vote is common to the wealthiest ($80K to $100K - 46%, $100K to $250K -
43%), Atlantic Canada (59%), and BC (45%). The Conservative vote is common to
the oldest (34%), in the prairies (49%) and, especially, in Alberta (56%). The
NDP vote is characteristic of the youngest (32%), mid income groups ($40K to
$60K - 26%) and in Quebec (24%). Of note, one fifth of past Conservative
voters will vote Liberal this time (19%), as will one third of past New
Democrat voters (32%). In contrast, few past Liberal voters will vote for
either of the other parties (will vote Conservative - 6%, will vote NDP - 7%).
Bare majority for Liberals
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the
Liberals would capture a 3 seat majority of 158. The Conservatives will be in
line for 100 seats, while the NDP would take 39, the Bloc 10 and the Green
Party would retain the leader's seat.
Mulcair favourables up
NDP
leader Thomas Mulcair has seen his approval rating increase from just more than
a third last month (37%) to closer to half today (44%) and his net favourable
rating (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +16, well up from +4.
Prime Minister Harper (approval 31%, net -29) and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau
(approval 46%, net +8) have seen their ratings stay stable (Harper - 33% and
-24, Trudeau - 44% and +5, respectively).
Trudeau now seen as best PM
Justin
Trudeau would make the best Prime Minister according to the plurality (30%),
followed by a quarter who opt for the incumbent Stephen Harper (25%). Fewer
than a fifth select Tom Mulcair (17%). Just one tenth picks Elizabeth May (10%),
while one fifth have no opinion on this measure (18%). There have been no
significant changes on this measure in the last month.
Trudeau leads or ties on all attributes
except the economy
Of
the attributes tested, Justin Trudeau leads for having the best vision for
Canada (32%), compared to Harper (25%), Mulcair (15%) or May (8%). One fifth of
NDP voters pick Trudeau on this measure (18%). Trudeau is also most likely to
be seen as the leader who cares about people like the respondent (28%, Harper
and Mulcair 20% each, May 11%). Trudeau is essentially tied with Harper for
most trustworthy (24% and 22%, respectively) while Mulcair (18%) and May (15%)
follow close behind. For handling the economy, Stephen Harper is preferred
(35%) to Trudeau (24%) or Mulcair (16%). Few pick May (5%).
Past NDP, Conservative voters now
supporting Liberals
Six-in-ten
past New Democrat voters (61%) and about one eighth of past Conservative voters
(16%) say they will vote for whichever party has the best chance of defeating
the Conservatives this time. This represents a decline from last fall among
Conservatives with this view, but a solid increase among NDP past voters
(September 2013 - past Conservatives - 24%, past New Democrats - 42%). One
quarter of past Conservatives (26%) and close to one half of past New Democrats
(45%) say they don't usually vote Liberal but might vote for Justin Trudeau,
and these are the same proportions as in the fall (past Conservatives - 25%,
past New Democrats - 42%). As many as one quarter of past Conservative voters
say the party has become too right wing for them to support anymore (26%),
similar to last year's finding (28%). A similar proportion of past Conservative
voters say their party has been in power too long (26% now, 24% last year), and
even one tenth of those who will vote for them next time think they have had
power for too long (13%). Three-in-ten past New Democrats will not vote for the
party this time (30%) and this is an increase since last year (26%).
“This race is stable, contrary to some reports, and the
Liberals maintain their comfortable lead. A growing comfort with Trudeau as
leader, one year into his tenure, and the support of a substantial proportion
of those who voted NDP in the last election implies this will continue to be
the case," said Forum Research President,
Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
