Federal
Liberal vote up sharply
Comfortable Liberal majority seen if election held today
TORONTO December
11th, 2014 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1658
Canadian voters, more than 4-in-10 will now vote Liberal (41%) if the election
were held today, up sharply from just more than a third, (36%) in November. In
the meantime, the Conservative vote share, one third, has not changed (33% in
November and now). The New Democratic vote is also stable, at less than one
fifth then (18%) and now (17%). Few will vote Green (5%), Bloc Quebecois (3%)
or for any other party (1%).
The
Liberal vote is most common to the young middle aged (45 to 54 - 46%), the
wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 46%), in Atlantic Canada (52%) and the best
educated (post grad - 46%). The Conservative vote is characteristic of the
oldest (37%), males (37%), middle income groups ($60K to $80K - 36%) and in
Alberta (50%).
Of
note, one fifth of past Conservative voters (20%) and more than a third of past
New Democratic voters (36%) will vote for the Liberals in the next election. In
addition, the Liberal vote is much "stickier"(will vote the same
party this time as last time - 85%) than that for the Conservatives (74%) and
NDP (55%).
In
the battleground of Quebec, the Liberals lead, with more than a third of the
vote (37%) to one quarter for the NDP (25%). The Conservatives trail (19%) and
the Bloc does too (14%). In vote rich Ontario, where elections are won and
lost, the Liberals have a modest lead over the Conservatives (42% to 38%),
while the NDP trails (14%).
Comfortable majority seen for Liberals
If
these results were projected up to seats in the current 308 seat Parliament,
the Liberals would take a nine seat majority of 164, to just 109 seats for the
Conservatives. The NDP would take only 34 seats, while the Green Party would
retain leader Elizabeth May's seat. In a first time finding, the Bloc Quebecois
would take no seats in Parliament. These projections stand in contrast to a hung
Parliament seen last month (Liberals - 124 seats, Conservatives - 125 seats).
Mulcair's favourables up, others steady, Trudeau leads
While
Prime Minister Harper (34% approval, -22 net favourable rating) and Liberal
Leader Justin Trudeau (46% approval, +10 net favourable) have not moved much
since last month (Harper - 36% and -19, Trudeau - 44% and +5), Tom Mulcair has
seen his approval increase from a bit more than a third (38%) to more than
4-in-10 (42%) now, and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove)
increase from +5 to +13.
"It appears there has been a
correction in Justin Trudeau's favour, and he has retaken his party's position
firmly atop the polls. After his foray into war, Prime Minister Harper has not
had much to follow up with, while the Liberals have been very publicly
nominating candidates across the country, an activity the Conservatives don't
publicly embrace for some reason. In addition, the Conservatives have radio ads
attacking the Liberal leader in heavy rotation, and our findings show that
these ads actually increase Justin's popularity, and attract recruits to the
Liberal party," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
