Federal Liberal vote up sharply

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Federal Liberal vote up sharply

Comfortable Liberal majority seen if election held today

TORONTO December 11th, 2014 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1658 Canadian voters, more than 4-in-10 will now vote Liberal (41%) if the election were held today, up sharply from just more than a third, (36%) in November. In the meantime, the Conservative vote share, one third, has not changed (33% in November and now). The New Democratic vote is also stable, at less than one fifth then (18%) and now (17%). Few will vote Green (5%), Bloc Quebecois (3%) or for any other party (1%).

The Liberal vote is most common to the young middle aged (45 to 54 - 46%), the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 46%), in Atlantic Canada (52%) and the best educated (post grad - 46%). The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (37%), males (37%), middle income groups ($60K to $80K - 36%) and in Alberta (50%).

Of note, one fifth of past Conservative voters (20%) and more than a third of past New Democratic voters (36%) will vote for the Liberals in the next election. In addition, the Liberal vote is much "stickier"(will vote the same party this time as last time - 85%) than that for the Conservatives (74%) and NDP (55%).

In the battleground of Quebec, the Liberals lead, with more than a third of the vote (37%) to one quarter for the NDP (25%). The Conservatives trail (19%) and the Bloc does too (14%). In vote rich Ontario, where elections are won and lost, the Liberals have a modest lead over the Conservatives (42% to 38%), while the NDP trails (14%).

Comfortable majority seen for Liberals

If these results were projected up to seats in the current 308 seat Parliament, the Liberals would take a nine seat majority of 164, to just 109 seats for the Conservatives. The NDP would take only 34 seats, while the Green Party would retain leader Elizabeth May's seat. In a first time finding, the Bloc Quebecois would take no seats in Parliament. These projections stand in contrast to a hung Parliament seen last month (Liberals - 124 seats, Conservatives - 125 seats).

Mulcair's favourables up, others steady, Trudeau leads

While Prime Minister Harper (34% approval, -22 net favourable rating) and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (46% approval, +10 net favourable) have not moved much since last month (Harper - 36% and -19, Trudeau - 44% and +5), Tom Mulcair has seen his approval increase from a bit more than a third (38%) to more than 4-in-10 (42%) now, and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) increase from +5 to +13.

"It appears there has been a correction in Justin Trudeau's favour, and he has retaken his party's position firmly atop the polls. After his foray into war, Prime Minister Harper has not had much to follow up with, while the Liberals have been very publicly nominating candidates across the country, an activity the Conservatives don't publicly embrace for some reason. In addition, the Conservatives have radio ads attacking the Liberal leader in heavy rotation, and our findings show that these ads actually increase Justin's popularity, and attract recruits to the Liberal party," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.