Federal
Liberals, Conservatives now tied
Conservatives with slim minority
TORONTO January
28th, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1382
Canadian voters, equal proportions, about a third each, will vote for the
Conservatives (35%) or the Liberals (34%) if a federal election were held
today. This is in contrast to earlier this month, when the Liberals (January 6
- 37%) led the Conservatives (33%) and represents the first time the two
parties have been tied since March, 2013 (Liberals - 31%, Conservatives - 30%).
The New Democrats will take one fifth of the vote (20%), and this is stable
from the beginning of the month (January 6 - 20%). About one fifth will vote
Green (6%) or Bloc Quebecois (5%), while very few will vote other parties (1%).
The Conservative vote is common to younger voters (35 to 44 - 44%), males (39%)
rather than females (30%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 41%), in the
prairies (50%) and Alberta (48%) and among those with some college or
university (40%). The Liberal vote is characteristic of Gen X (45 to 54 - 38%),
the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 42%), in Atlantic Canada (46%) and Ontario
(40%) and among the best educated (post grad - 40%). The New Democrat vote is
common to Quebec (25%) and among the best educated (24%). Of note, 1-in-7 past
Conservative voters (15%) and one quarter of past New Democrats (26%) would
vote Liberal if the election were held today.
New seat distribution favours Conservatives
The
new 338 seat House of Commons favours the Conservatives in seat projections,
despite a tie in the popular vote. If the election were held tomorrow, the
Conservatives would take a modest minority of 145 seats, 25 short of the 170
needed for a majority. The Liberals would capture 125 seats, the NDP 61 and the
Greens would take their leader’s seat. The Bloc would elect 5 MPs and one
Independent (André Arthur, if he runs) would also take a seat.
Equal proportions expect Liberals, Conservatives to win next
election
Mirroring
the voting preference question, and despite the seat projections, respondents
are equally likely (more than a third each) to expect the Conservatives (36%)
or the Liberals (37%) to win the next election, while few expect the NDP to be
victorious (9%). Even among New Democratic voters, just one third (31%) expect
their party to win. Conservatives have higher expectations of their party’s
victory (82%) than do Liberals (72%). This “expectation" measure may be
predictive of electoral outcomes.
Leaders’ favourables stable
Prime
Minister Stephen Harper has the approval of one third (34%), stable since the
beginning of the month (January 6 - 34%) and his net favourable score (approve
minus disapprove) is also stable, if very negative (-22 then and now). Tom
Mulcair’s approval is steady (40% now, 42% at the beginning of the month) as is
his net score (+14 then, +12 now). Justin Trudeau is also stable (43% and +7
now, 42% and +5 on January 6).
"Nothing much in particular
has happened recently, the Prime Minister is no more popular, the other leaders
are no less so, yet the incremental decline in the Liberal lead has continued
to the point where it is no longer a lead, for the first time in our polling
since Justin Trudeau became leader. The Prime Minister benefits from what is
proving to be a popular war, and that’s a hard act for any opposition leader to
follow," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
