Eve Adams bested by Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence

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Eve Adams bested by Joe Oliver in Eglinton-Lawrence

But Oliver loses to Mike Colle

TORONTO February 13th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 659 voters in the federal riding of Eglinton-Lawrence, one half will vote for the incumbent, Conservative MP Joe Oliver (49%) over new Liberal recruit Eve Adams (28%) if a federal election were held in the riding today. The NDP candidate would take about a tenth of the vote (13%) and the Green candidate about half as many (7%). Few would vote other parties (3%). Previous candidates’ names were used for the NDP and Green candidates.

Oliver defeated by Mike Colle

When the Liberal candidate mentioned is provincial MPP Mike Colle, however, close to half choose him (46%) over about 4-in-10 for the incumbent Oliver (41%). Many of the additional Liberal votes come from the ranks of the Green Party (2%).

Colle, Oliver have high favourables, not so much Adams

One half of voters in the riding approve of Joe Oliver (49%) and his net favourable (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +17. More than half approve of Mike Colle (52%), and his net is a very favourable +31. Eve Adams on the other hand, has the approval of fewer than a fifth (14%), and her net is a very negative -39.

"The Liberals may have their own reasons for running Eve Adams against a sitting cabinet minister who may or may not be vulnerable, but it is clear that Mike Colle has the riding’s approval already, and has a good shot at the seat, which Adams does not appear to have," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.