Liberals maintain strong lead
Leading or tied everywhere
but Alberta
TORONTO October 14th, 2015 - In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1438 Canadian voters five days
before the federal election, just fewer than 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (37%)
while just more than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (31%). These proportions
have not changed since we polled last Friday. The NDP has the support of about
one quarter (24%) and this has not changed either (October 9 - 23%). The Bloc
Quebecois has less than a tenth of the vote (6%), and the Greens much less (2%).
Minority Liberal government
seen
If these results are projected up to the newly expanded
House of Commons, the Liberals would take a minority of 127 seats, 43 fewer
than required for a majority, while the Conservatives would take 114. The NDP
would capture 77 seats, the Bloc as many as 19 (more than we have projected
since July) and the Greens would seat only their leader.
Liberals lead or tied
everywhere but Alberta
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are dominant (52%), and the
Conservatives have half their vote (28%). In Quebec, Liberals now have a slight
lead (29%) over the NDP (27%) and the Bloc (23%) has surpassed the
Conservatives (18%). In vote rich Ontario, the Liberals have a very strong lead
(42%) over the Conservatives (34%), while the New Democrats lag (23%). In the
prairies, the Liberals have a small lead (37%) over the Conservatives (34%) and
the NDP are in third (27%). It is only in Alberta that the Conservatives have a
clear lead (52%) over the Liberals (31%). The NDP are not competitive (14%). In
BC, Liberals and Conservatives are tied (33% each) and the NDP are very close
(30%).
Past New Democrats,
Conservatives voting Liberal
Three-in-ten New Democrats from 2011 will vote Liberal this
time (31%) as will close to one fifth of past Conservatives (17%). Just more
than one tenth of past Liberals will vote NDP (13%). Eight-in-ten 2011 Liberals
are voting Liberal again this time, while three quarters of past Conservatives
will vote their party (73%). Just more than one half of those who voted NDP in
the Orange Crush of 2011 will vote for the party again this time (56%).
Gender, Income and age
differentiate parties
Conservatives are prominent in mid age bands, while Liberals
are older and the NDP voter is youngest. Males are more common among
Conservatives, females among New Democrats and there is a relatively even
balance between genders in the Liberal party. Conservatives tend to be mid
income, Liberals higher income and New Democrats lower income, although income
is often a proxy for age.
One quarter of decided voters
may yet switch
A quarter of those who have made their vote decision may yet
change their minds (23%), and these are more likely to be Liberals (24%) or New
Democrats (26%) than Conservatives (14%).
Liberals widely expected to
win election
Close to one half of voters expect the Liberals to win the
election (44%), compared to fewer than 3-in-10 who think this of the
Conservatives (27%) and much fewer who think it of the NDP (14%). One tenth of
Conservatives expect the Liberals to win (10%), as do more than a third of New
Democrats (36%).
Trudeau seen as best PM
Justin Trudeau is still seen as the best prime minister
(29%), while Stephen Harper is second on this measure (26%), very closely
followed by Tom Mulcair (24%). In a new development, very few think none of the
candidates would make a good Prime Minister (6%).
Close to 3-in-10 voting
strategically
Among Liberal voters, more than a quarter say they are
voting for the party only because it can defeat the government (26%) in
addition to those who will vote Liberal because they share the party’s values
(67%). Among New Democrats, a similar proportion (28%) is voting only because
of strategic considerations, rather than for their values (60%). In total, more
than a third will vote Liberal for either reason (34%), while about one quarter
in total will vote the NDP (24%) or Conservative (27%).
“Poll results have not shifted strongly since the end of
last week, except that the Liberals lead or are tied across the country now,
except in Alberta, and the NDP
appear to be out of the hunt”, said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
