Liberal
lead cut to 23 points
Progressive Conservatives, NDP increase vote share
TORONTO November
24th, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 842
Newfoundland and Labrador voters, just more than half will vote Liberal (52%),
while about 3-in-10 will vote Progressive Conservative (29%). The NDP vote is
characteristic of one fifth (19%). This stands in sharp contrast to the last
time we polled the day after the writs were drawn up, when the Liberals had a
44 point lead (November 6 - Liberals 65% to 21% for the Progressive
Conservatives, 13% for the NDP).
The
Liberal vote is common to the younger voter (35 to 44 - 59%), the least wealthy
(65%), western Newfoundland and Corner Brook (67%) and among those voting in
advance polls (62%).
The
Progressive Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (33%), mid-income
groups ($40K to $60K - 40%), in St John’s and the Avalon Peninsula (31%), but
not in Labrador (22%).
The
NDP vote is common to the youngest (31%) and in Labrador (46%).
Of
note, about 4-in-10 past Progressive Conservative voters will support the
Liberals this time (39%), as will the same proportion of past NDP voters (41%).
Leader approvals are stable
Close
to half approve of Dwight Ball (45%) and his net favourable rating (approve
minus disapprove) is +12, Paul Davis has the approval of 4-in-10 (39%) and his
net is a slightly negative -5. Earle McCurdy is approved of by 3-in-10 (30%)
and his net score is a negative -16.
Ball seen as best premier
Dwight
Ball is seen as the best Premier by a slight margin over Paul Davis (34% to
30%) while Earle McCurdy does not pass muster on this measure (10%).
“It appears that reports of the Liberals’ massive lead in some polls
has led voters to reconsider their decision, with just 6 days left until the
election. Make no mistake, the Liberals still sport a huge lead, but probably
not enough for a legislative sweep," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
