Federal
Liberals maintain lead over Conservatives
Two thirds oppose niqab in citizenship ceremonies
TORONTO March
14th, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1370
Canadian voters, more than a third (36%) will vote Liberal if a federal
election were held today, while just one third would vote Conservative (32%).
One fifth would vote for the NDP (21%), but few would vote Green (6%), Bloc
Quebecois (4%) or for any other party (1%). This represents a slight decline
for the Liberals since last month (February 11 - 39%) and stasis for the
Conservatives (February - 32%).
In
Quebec, the Liberals lead at one third of the vote (33%) to one quarter for the
NDP (24%) and one fifth for the Conservatives (20%). Fewer than one fifth would
vote Bloc (16%). In vote rich Ontario, where this year’s election will be won
or lost, Liberals (38%) and Conservatives (37%) are tied, with a fifth of the
vote going to the New Democrats (19%). In Alberta, the Conservatives take more
than half the vote (51%), but the Liberals are not shut out (29%). In Atlantic
Canada, the Liberals are absolutely dominant (63%). In BC, the Liberals and NDP
are tied for second place (29% each) behind the Conservatives (35%).
Very tight Liberal minority seen
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the Liberals
would capture a minority of 138 seats (32 fewer than required for a majority)
to 130 for the Conservatives, a very high 65 for the NDP , 4 for the Bloc
Quebecois and 1 Green Party seat. This stands in contrast to last month when
the Liberals were projected to take a majority of 194 seats to 112 for the
Conservatives. The NDP were projected to take just 30 seats last month.
Two thirds oppose niqab in citizenship ceremonies
Two
thirds of Canadian voters oppose allowing women to wear the face-covering niqab
during citizenship ceremonies (67%), while fewer than a quarter favour the idea
(22%). Just one tenth are undecided (10%). Opposition is common to GenX (45 to
54 - 76%), Boomers (55 to 64 - 75%) and seniors (65+ - 77%) but not the
youngest (51%), the wealthier ($80K to $100K - 78%), in Quebec especially
(87%), among Conservative voters (83%), among virtually every Bloc voter (96% -
caution: small base size), Francophones (88%), Catholics (80%) and Evangelicals
(80%).
Most find niqab inoffensive to Canadians and to themselves
Close
to half of Canadian voters say the niqab is not offensive to Canadians in
general (45%) and the majority do not find it offensive to themselves (57%).
Four-in-ten say the niqab offends their countrymen (41%), but just a third say
it offends them (36%). In each case, about one tenth have no opinion (14% and
8%, respectively).
Majority agree niqab oppresses women
The
majority of Canadian voters agree the niqab is oppressive to women (57%), while
just one quarter do not (24%). One fifth have no opinion (19%). Agreement women
are oppressed by the niqab is common to Gen X (45 to 54 - 67%), mid income
groups ($60K to $80K - 64%), in Quebec (73%), among Conservatives (70%), Bloc
voters (78%) and Francophones (73%). Belief the niqab is not oppressive is characteristic
of the youngest (32%), in Atlantic Canada (39%), among Liberals (31%), past New
Democrats (32%), and those who are religious but not Christian (39%).
"We can’t say that the niqab
controversy has damaged the Liberals, but it has clearly not helped the
Conservatives. While Canadians agree the niqab has no place in citizenship
ceremonies, they do not find it offensive, either to themselves or to the
others. It is likely that this issue, as it directly affects such a vanishingly
small number of women, will be little more than a sideshow in the general
election," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
