Federal Liberals With Over Half the
Vote
Convincing supermajority if
election held today
TORONTO May 13th, 2016 - In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1517 Canadian voters, over
half would vote Liberal if an election were held today (52%), while just less
than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (29%). The NDP have just one tenth of the
vote (11%), while few will vote Green (3%), Bloc Quebecois (4%) or any other
party (1%). These results represent relative stability since last month (April
6, Liberals - 51%, Conservatives - 28%, NDP - 12%).
The Liberals lead or are tied everywhere but Alberta, and it
is only in BC that the NDP clears a tenth of the vote. The Liberals are
dominant in the Atlantic provinces (61%), while the Conservatives lag (28%). In
Quebec, the Liberals are just as dominant (59%), while the Bloc (15%) and
Conservatives (13%) strive for distant second place. In Ontario, the Liberals
are less dominant, but still the majority party (54%), while the Conservatives
muster 3-in-10 votes (30%). The Liberals (42%) and the Conservatives (44%) are
tied in the prairies, while the Conservatives lead only in Alberta (52%), but
not by much (Liberals - 42%). The Liberals (43%) lead by less in BC (Conservatives
- 33%, NDP - 17%).
It should be noted that, of those who voted NDP in the
recent election, fully 4-in-10 would vote Liberal today (40%), while a seventh
of those who voted Conservative would as well (14%).
Dominant supermajority would
result from election today
If the results shown here
are projected to the House of Commons, the Liberals would take over three
quarters of the seats (261), while the Conservatives would have to settle for
69. The NDP would hold just 7 seats, and the Greens would seat their leader.
Mulcair’s approvals up since losing
party leadership
Prime Minister Trudeau has
the approval of close to 6-in-10 (57%), and his net favourability rating
(approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +24. This is similar to his
approvals last month. The Prime Minister draws the approval of one half of NDP
supporters (48%) and even a tenth of Conservatives (12%). His favourability
among Liberals is almost universal (91%)
Rona Ambrose has the
approval of 3-in-10 (31%) and her net is a relatively neutral +5, but this is
due to the high level of those who don’t know enough about her to have an
opinion (42%). Ms. Ambrose has the approval of more than half her party members
(57%) and is relatively well thought of by Liberals (23%) and even some New
Democrats (16%).
Tom Mulcair has seen his
approval jump from one third last month (32%) to more than that now (36%), and
his net score has improved from -4 to +5. Mulcair has the approval of about two
thirds of New Democrats (62%), while few disapprove of him (12%). He achieves
some approval among Liberals (39%), and even among a quarter of Conservatives
(23%).
One half see Trudeau as best
PM
One half of Canadians see
Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (47%), compared to about one quarter
this proportion for either Ambrose (13%) or Mulcair (10%). Thus, both Mulcair
and Trudeau closely match their party’s vote preference, but Ambrose
significantly underperforms her party.
Satisfaction with election
outcome remains high
In total, two thirds are
satisfied with the outcome of the election (64%), and more than a third are
“very satisfied” (36%). These findings haven’t changed since last month (64%
and 36%, respectively).
“What we see here has clearly gone
beyond a honeymoon. We may be looking at a long term love affair between the
Prime Minister and the voters. His vote share and his approvals remain
improbably high. In fact, the more interesting finding in this poll is that Tom
Mulcair seems to have undergone a revitalization in his favourables since his
dramatic decision to almost step down. Nonetheless, he is the one candidate who
seriously outperforms his party right now, which is a worrisome signal for the
NDP,”
said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is
the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
or at (416) 960-9603.
