Progressive
Conservatives with 10 Point Lead
Slim PC majority seen
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1172 Ontario voters, 4-in-10
will vote PC if the election were held today (40%), while 3-in-10 support the
Liberals (30)%). Just more than a fifth support the NDP (21%). This is in
contrast to one month ago, when the PC lead was just 5 points (April 28, PC -
39%, Liberal - 34%, NDP - 21%). Note that more than a tenth of those who voted
Liberal in the last election will vote PC now (13%) and an identical proportion
of past New Democrats will support Liberal candidates (13%). One sixth of past
Liberals will now support the NDP (15%).
Slim PC majority seen
If the results above
are projected up to the 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take 57, three more
than required for a majority, while the Liberals would capture 26 and the NDP
24 seats.
Leaders’ favourables stable
Premier Kathleen
Wynne has the approval of just one fifth of the electorate (21%) and her net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a truly negative -47. Patrick
Brown has the approval of a quarter (25%), but his net score is a neutral +1,
because of the high percentage of voters who don’t know enough about him (52%)
to rate him. Andrea Horwath has the highest approval of the three leaders, at
about one third (34%), and her net favourable score is just +3. These findings
are similar to those noted last month. Of note, 3-in-10 Liberal voters do not
approve of Kathleen Wynne (29%).
Patrick Brown preferred for Premier
Patrick Brown is
seen as the best choice for Premier by a quarter (24%), about 10 points ahead
of either Kathleen Wynne (16%) or Andrea Horwath (15%). The largest single
group of voters says “none of these” is the best choice, however (28%).
“Both Kathleen Wynne
and Patrick Brown are underperforming their respective parties in terms of
approval, Wynne because she is genuinely disliked, even by some Liberals, and
Brown because he’s not well-enough known yet to perform at the level his party
currently aspires to. Horwath, on the other hand, continues to outperform her
party. While voters genuinely admire her, they just aren’t ready to vote NDP
provincially in Ontario” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
