Liberals With Half the Vote
Little to no effect from “elbowgate”
In a random sampling
of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 2271 Canadian voters, one half
would vote Liberal if an election were held today (49%), while one third would
vote Conservative (32%) and as few as one tenth will vote for the NDP (10%).
This is comparable to findings seen last month, with the exception that the
Conservatives have seen a slight uptick in their support (from 29% in May)
while the Liberals have seen a slight decrease in theirs (from 52% in May). The
NDP support levels have not changed (May, 2016 - 11%).
Liberals are
dominant across the country except in Alberta and the prairies. In Atlantic
Canada, they have well more than half the vote (58%) to just more than one
quarter for the Conservatives (28%). The NDP do not place (10%). In Quebec,
Liberals have more than half the vote (53%), the Conservatives and the Bloc
Quebecois are tied at about one fifth (17% each), and the NDP does not place
(9%). In Ontario, one half will vote Liberal (51%) while the Conservatives do
relatively well (36%). The NDP do not contend (9%). In the prairies, the
Conservatives lead (49%) and the Liberals are second (35%). Here, where the
party was born, the NDP is not a contender (9%). In Alberta alone do the
Conservatives have majority support (59%), while the Liberals have a third
(32%). The federal NDP does not figure in this province (4%). In BC, Liberals
have half the vote (49%), well more than the Conservatives (29%). The NDP score
their highest vote share, almost a fifth, here (17%).
Among those who
voted NDP in the recent federal election, as many as 4-in-10 will now vote
Liberal (43%), actually more than would vote NDP again (42%).
Liberals would take a two thirds
majority
If these results are
projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take 68%,
well more than a supermajority (230 seats), while the Conservatives would
settle for 98 seats. The NDP would capture as few as 9 seats, thereby losing
official party status, while the Green Party would seat one member, their
leader.
Prime Minister Trudeau’s approval sees
no change since “elbowgate”
Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of
more than half the electorate (57%), and his net favourability rating (approve
minus disapprove) is a sterling +24. These levels of approval are exactly the
same as those noted in May (57%, +24), before he supposedly squandered his
goodwill in the scuffle which has become known as “elbowgate”. Trudeau has
almost universal appeal among Liberal voters (93% approval).
Rona Ambrose has
seen her approval improve slightly since May (from 31% to 34%), as has her net
score (+5 to +7). Six-in-ten Conservative voters approve of Ms. Ambrose (60%),
while about one sixth do not (15%).
Tom Mulcair has seen his approval decline
very slightly since last month (from 36% to 34%), while his net score has
declined from +5 to -4. Two thirds of New Democrats approve of Mr. Mulcair
(64%), while about one fifth do not (17%).
Two thirds see Trudeau as positively or
more positively than they did on election day
Two thirds of Canadian voters (68%) judge Justin Trudeau
more favourably now (30%), or as favourably as they did at the election (38%),
an indication that “elbowgate” has done little to diminish his appeal. In
fact, it is only among Conservatives that the majority (56%) see the Prime
Minister less favourably now than when he was elected
Close to half see Trudeau as best PM
Close to one half of
voters consider Justin Trudeau to be the best choice for Prime Minister (45%),
and second to this choice is “none of the above” (19%). Rona Ambrose and Tom
Mulcair are tied for third in this measure (11% and 9%, respectively). Almost
all Liberals see Justin Trudeau as the best choice (84%), whereas just one
third of Conservatives believe Ms. Ambrose is the best choice (37%) and a
similar proportion of New Democrats opt for Mr. Mulcair (38%). In fact, one
quarter of New Democrat voters see Mr. Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (26%).
“What we are seeing
here, in the middle of relative stasis for the two leading parties, is the slow
evisceration of the NDP, and its interim leader. They run the risk
of becoming a marginal party in some of their strongest garrisons, and their
interim leader who won’t leave does not appear to be helping their ratings. A
party that can’t break double digits in the popular vote or in seats in
parliament is in dire need of refreshing, or winding up" said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
