Federal
Liberals, Conservatives almost tied
Conservative minority government seen if election held today
TORONTO March 31st,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1239 Canadian
voters, one third or just fewer will vote either for the Conservatives (31%) or
the Liberals (34%) if a federal election were held today. Just fewer than one
quarter would vote New Democrat (23%), and few would vote Green (5%), Bloc
Quebecois (5%) or for another party (1%). These findings represent relative
stability since we polled at mid-month (March 14: Liberals - 36%, Conservatives
- 32%, NDP - 21%, Greens - 6%, Bloc - 4%, Other - 1%).
In
vote-rich Ontario, where the next election will be won or lost, the
Conservatives have a slight lead on the Liberals (38% to 34%), and the NDP is
not a major factor (21%). In Quebec, The Liberals (29%) and the NDP (28%) are
tied, while the Conservatives and the Bloc lag (20% and 19%, respectively). In
conservative Alberta, Liberals (31%) and NDP (20%) are sidelined, while the
Conservatives lead (43%). Atlantic Canada is Liberal country (52%) to the
exclusion of other parties (Conservative - 20%, NDP - 23%).
Of
note, one fifth of past Conservative voters will support the Liberals this time
around (19%), while a similar proportion of past New Democrats will as well
(21%). About one tenth of past Liberals will vote either NDP (12%) or
Conservative (8%).
Conservative minority seen
If
these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the
Conservatives would take a slim minority of 129 seats (41 fewer than required
for a majority), while the Liberals would take 125, The NDP would occupy 65
seats, the Bloc a one year high of 17 seats, the Greens would retain their
leader’s seat and André Arthur would occupy an independent seat, unless he runs
a Conservative.
Tied expectations of electoral victory remain stable
An
equal proportion of voters expect the Conservatives (35%) or the Liberals (36%)
to win the next election, and this is similar to the answer seen the last time
we asked this (January 28: Conservatives - 36%, Liberals - 37%). Just one tenth
see the NDP with a chance at victory, then (9%) and now (11%). One tenth of
Conservatives see a Liberal victory (9%), one sixth of Liberals see a
Conservative victory (14%) and as many as 3-in-10 New Democrats see the
Liberals winning (31%) which may be an indication of their eventual vote. Half
this proportion of New Democrats see the Conservatives winning (17%).
Mulcair favourables up sharply, Trudeau’s down slightly
Prime
Minister Harper has the approval of one third of voters (33%) and his net
favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -26. These
levels are stable from the last time we asked approval (January 28 - 34%, -22).
Tom Mulcair has seen his approval rise sharply since then (from 40% to 47%) and
his net score has improved as well (+14 to +17). Justin Trudeau’s approval has
declined slightly (from 43% to 40%, and from +7 net to -4).
"We’re seeing here the very
gradual erosion of the lead the Liberals have enjoyed since electing Trudeau as
leader, to the point where the two parties are functionally tied and, because
of quirks of the new 338 seat distribution, the Conservatives stand to win a
minority. It is not unlikely we will see this gradual erosion continue until
either the Iraq mission goes off the rails or the economy suffers even worse
than it already has," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
