Gap Between Federal Liberals and Conservatives Closes Slightly

| Filed under: National

Gap Between Federal Liberals and Conservatives Closes Slightly

Liberal majority seat count seen to decrease

In a random sampling of public opinion among 1326 Canadian voters, just less than half will vote Liberal if the federal election were held today (47%), and this is stable from earlier this month (September 8 - 48%). About one third will vote Conservative (34%) and this is up since our last poll (September 8 - 30%). The New Democrats would take just less than a tenth of the vote (9%), the Greens less than this (3%) and the Bloc Quebecois about the same (6%).

The Liberals lead decisively in every region except Alberta. In Atlantic Canada, they have well more than half the vote (59%), while the Conservatives have a third (32%) and the NDP do not contend (3%). In Quebec, the Liberals have almost half the vote (47%), and the Bloc (21%) and Conservatives (18%) are tied for the other half. The NDP is at about a tenth of the vote (9%). In Ontario, half the vote is the Liberals’ (48%), while the Conservatives take about 4-in-10 votes (39%). The NDP are at a tenth (9%). In the prairies, the Liberals have well more than half the vote (56%), compared to one third for the Conservatives (33%) and a tenth or so for the NDP (8%). In Alberta, the Conservatives lead (58%), followed by the Liberals 28%) and about a tenth for the NDP (9%). In BC, half the vote goes to the Liberals (47%), a third to the conservatives (34%) and the NDP post their best result with more than a tenth (13%).

Of note, one third of those who voted for the NDP in 2015 will vote Liberal this time around (35%). The same is the case with the Greens (36%).

Liberal majority seen to be slightly smaller

If these results are projected up to seats in the House of Commons, the Liberals would take a majority of 65%, or 219 seats, 49 more than required for this majority. The Conservatives would take 111 seats, the NDP just 7 and the Green Party one seat.

Leader approvals stable

Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than half the electorate (54%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +19. This is very similar to earlier this month (55%), and his net was also +19. He has the approval of almost all Liberals (92%), and about one half of New Democrats (49%) and Greens (45%).

Rona Ambrose has approval from 3-in-10 (31%) and her net score is a slightly positive +5. This is very similar to her approvals in the early part of the month (30%, +4). She has the approval of just more than half the Conservative voter base (55%).

Tom Mulcair’s approval is also stable at one third (32%) and a net score of -3, which compares to his approval earlier in the month of 31% and -2. He has the approval of just more than one half his party (56%), down from two thirds last time we polled (64%).

Justin Trudeau makes the best PM

Just more than 4-in-10 see Justin Trudeau as the best to hold the job he occupies (44%), down slightly from earlier in the month (46%), and the month before that (50%). One fifth say none of the leaders is fit for the job (19%), and just more than a tenth select Rona Ambrose (13%). Fewer than a tenth would entrust the job to Tom Mulcair (8%).

“We are seeing a very slow but steady reversion to the mean here, where the burden of governing eventually accumulates enough negative energy to level even the most stratospheric of political fortunes" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) 960-9603.