Federal Liberals Lead; Conservatives Cede to NDP

| Filed under: National

Federal Liberals Lead; Conservatives Cede to NDP

Liberals on track for more than a two thirds majority

TORONTO, October 13th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1384 Canadian voters, one half will vote Liberal if the election were held today (49%), and this stable from last month (September 22 - 47%). The Conservatives have a 3-in-10 share of the vote (30%), down from last month (34%), while the NDP have increased their vote share at the Conservatives’ expense (from 9% in September to 12% now). Few will vote for the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or the Greens (4%). Of note, one tenth of those who voted for the Conservatives in the federal election last year will vote Liberal today (10%), while 4-in-10 2015 New Democrats will too (40%).

More than two thirds majority seen

If these results are projected up to seats in the House, the Liberals would take 240 seats, or 71% of them, while the Conservatives would take 83 and the NDP just 14. The Green Party would keep its single seat.

Liberal Leader approvals stable

Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than half (56%, stable from 54% in September)), and a net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) of +20. He has the approval of virtually all Liberals (92%) and of one half of New Democratic voters (49%).

Rona Ambrose has the approval of 3-in-10 (30%, stable from 31% in September) and her net is a neutral +3. She has the approval of close to 6-in-10 Conservative supporters (56%), less than a quarter of Liberals (22%) and about one sixth of New Democrats (15%).

Tom Mulcair has the approval of more than a third of voters (35%, up slightly from 32% in September) and his net is a neutral +1. He has the approval of just more than one half of New Democrats (56%), and about a third or less of Liberals (37%) and Conservatives (23%).

Trudeau seen to make best PM, even among New Democrats

Close to one half see Justin Trudeau as the best choice for the job he holds (46%), followed by just less than one fifth who think none of the leaders is up to the task (17%). Rona Ambrose is the choice of about one tenth (13%), while fewer would select Elizabeth May (7%) or Tom Mulcair (9%). Of note, fewer than one half of Conservative voters see Rona Ambrose as the best Prime Minister (43%) and less than half of New Democrats see Tom Mulcair as the best PM (38%). One quarter of New Democrats see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (27%), while virtually all Liberals support Justin Trudeau for the job (83%).

“It is curious to see the NDP stealing share, directly or indirectly, from the Conservatives, when the Liberals are usually the target” said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.