Three
parties tied in Alberta
Razor thin Wildrose majority seen
TORONTO April 9th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1661 Alberta
voters, almost exactly equal proportions, about 3-in-10, will vote for the
Wildrose Party (30%), the New Democrats (28%) or the PCs (27%) in the election
scheduled for May 5. On this sample size, this is a virtual three way tie.
Wildrose
is favoured by Gen X and Boomers (45 to 64 - 36%), males (35%) rather than
females (24%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 36%), in Calgary and central
Alberta (35% each) and in Southern Alberta (40%). One fifth of past PC voters
will vote Wildrose this time (21%).
The
PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (33%) and the least wealthy (35%). Just
one half of past PC voters will vote for the party this time around (47%).
The
NDP vote is common to younger voters (25 to 34 - 39%), the less wealthy and the
wealthier ($20K to $40K and $80K to $100K - 34% each) and in Edmonton (40%).
Close to one quarter of past PC voters will vote NDP this time around (22%).
Bare majority seen for Wildrose
If
the results shown here are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the Wildrose
Party would take a bare majority of 44 seats, to 23 for the PCs, 15 for the New
Democrats and 5 for the Liberal Party.
Prentice’s favourables very negative, Notley’s high, others
largely unknown
Fewer
than a quarter of Alberta voters approve of the job Jim Prentice is doing as
premier (22%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a
truly awful -41, by the far the lowest we have ever recorded. Rachel Notley is
approved of by more than 4-in-10 for her job as NDP leader (42%) and her net is
a very positive +21. Other candidates do not draw high levels of approval, but
are also not well-known (Brian Jean - 28% approve, net +5, David Swann - 25%
approve, net -7, Greg Clark, - 16% approve, net -6).
"The Alberta electorate is
difficult to poll because they take every political development personally, and
change their allegiances as the targets of their frustrations change. The fact
that Wildrose leads now doesn’t mean they will prevail on election day. The
most interesting finding here is the strong performance of the Alberta NDP," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
