Federal
Conservatives pull into the lead
Minority government seen
TORONTO April
23rd, 2015 - In
a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 977 Canadian
voters, just more than a third will vote Conservative (35%) if a federal
election occurred today, while just more than 3-in-10 will vote for the
Liberals (31%). This represents a lead for the Conservatives at this sample
size, after several months of being tied in our polling. This does not,
however, represent a strong shift from findings noted last week (April 16,
Conservatives - 33%, Liberals - 35%).
The
New Democrats have the support of just less than a quarter (23%), stable from
last week (22%). Few will vote for the Greens (6%), the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or
for any other party (1%).
In
vote-rich Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 39% to 34%, while the
New Democrats claim one fifth support (21%). In Quebec, the three leading
parties are essentially tied (Conservatives - 26%, Liberals - 24%, NDP - 26%)
and the Bloc attracts about one fifth of the votes (19%). Liberals are dominant
in Atlantic Canada (42%) and Conservatives lead in Alberta (46%). Liberals have
a slight lead (34%) in BC over the Conservatives (31%). Of note, one quarter of
those who voted NDP in 2011 will vote Liberal in the next election (26%).
Conservative minority seen
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 338 seat House, the Conservatives
would take a weak minority of 146 seats, 24 fewer than needed for a majority,
while the Liberals would take 101 seats, the NDP 77 and the Bloc 12. The Greens
would keep their single seat, and André Arthur, if he runs as an independent,
would also be elected. One week ago, the seat projections were 142, 137, 58 and
one seat for the Greens, so the NDP is benefiting from a decline in Liberal
popularity.
"It is no secret the Liberals
are finally losing the momentum that has carried them through the past two
years since Justin was elected leader. Here we see the first clear indications
that the NDP are picking up the support the Liberals are losing. In our last
wave of polling, we found the majority prefer a coalition in the event of a
Conservative minority government, and they may have their chance after this
election is over, " said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
