Alberta NDP
headed for historic majority
PCAA headed for rout
TORONTO May 2nd,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1060 Alberta
voters three days before the provincial election, more than 4-in-10 will vote
for the NDP (42%) compared to fewer than a quarter who will vote Wildrose (24%)
and fewer yet who will vote for the incumbent Progressive Conservatives (21%).
One twentieth will vote Liberal or Alberta Party (5% each) and few will vote
for another party (3%).
The
NDP is dominant in Edmonton (55%) and leads the other parties in Calgary (37%),
central Alberta (32%) and in northern Alberta (38%). Wildrose leads in southern
Alberta (42%).
The
NDP vote is common to the wealthiest ($80K to $100K - 49%, $100K to $250K -
46%) and the youngest (under 25 - 48%, 25 to 34 - 51%).
As
many as 4-in-10 of those who voted PC in the last election will vote for the
NDP this time (40%), as will one sixth of past Wildrose voters (16%). A similar
proportion, however, will vote PC this time (15%). In total, just one third of
past PCAA voters will vote for the party again (35%).
Historic majority for NDP, PCAA all but gone
If
these results are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture
a staggering 69 seats, 25 more than needed for a majority. Wildrose would take
16 seats, and the PCs would be reduced to just 2 seats.
"We noted the initial momentum
of the NDP at the very beginning of the campaign, then cautiously spoke of an
NDP majority mid-way through. Now the campaign is almost over, it appears the
NDP are headed for a truly historic victory, almost as historic as the rout the
40 year Alberta Tory dynasty appears to face," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
