NDP
headed for crushing Alberta victory
Historic majority seen
TORONTO May 4th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1101 Alberta
voters the night before the provincial election, close to one half will vote
NDP (45%), while fewer than a quarter will vote for either the Progressive
Conservatives or the Wildrose Party (23% each). Very few will vote Liberal
(4%), for the Alberta Party (3%) or for any other party (2%).
These
findings represent a slight increase for the NDP since we polled two days ago
(May 2, NDP - 42%, WRP - 24%, PCAA - 21%). The NDP is dominant in Edmonton
(59%), and leads in Calgary (39%) and every other region of Alberta. The PCAA
is in second place in Calgary (26%) and Edmonton (20%), but trails in the rest
of the province.
As
many past PC voters will vote NDP this time (39%) as will vote for their own
party again (40%), while one fifth of past Wildrose voters will also vote NDP
this time around (22%).
Historic majority in the offing
If
these results are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture
63, 19 more than a majority, while Wildrose would take 19 seats and the PCAA
would be reduced to just 5 seats.
"We noted the NDP’s promise
the day the writ dropped, we predicted a thin NDP majority two weeks later, we
saw a rout on Saturday and our views have not changed tonight. This is an
historic political turnover in Alberta, led by dissatisfaction with mistakes
made by the incumbent party and the increasingly untenable status quo. Premier
Prentice has spent his political capital so poorly in this campaign, he risks
losing his own seat, and those of most of his colleagues," said Forum
Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum
Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
