Conservative Lead Grows

Conservative Lead Grows

Trudeau’s disapproval high

Toronto, May 17^th, 2018 –  In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1484 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost half (46%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a third (30%) say they would support the Liberals.

One-fifth (18%) say they would support the NDP.

Few say they would support the Green Party (4%), BQ (2%), or another party (1%). 

Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (50%), 55-64 (48%), or 65+ (48%), males (52%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (54%), the least educated (52%), and living in Alberta (65%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 45-54 (35%) or 65+ (34%), with a college/university (32%) or post-graduate degree (35%), and living in the Atlantic provinces (44%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (31%), females (21%), the least wealthy (25%) or earning $20,000-$40,000 (24%), and living in BC (28%).

 Conservative Majority

Based on these results, we project the Conservatives would secure a majority government with 234 seats. The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 72 seats, and the NDP would secure 30 seats.

The BQ and the Green party would secure 1 seat each.

Trudeau Approval Down, Disapproval Up

Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (35%) and disapproval from more than half (56%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (9%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -21.

Andrew Scheer sees approval from a third (31%) and disapproval from a third (34%). A third say they do not know (35%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -3.

Jagmeet Singh sees approval from one-quarter (27%) and disapproval from a third (35%). 4 in 10 (38%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -8.

 “The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The Prime Minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now and that could account for the lack of support for his party.”

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.