Liberals Lead But
PCs Tracking for Thin Majority
People’s Alliance and Green battling for
third
Toronto, September 13th – In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1300 New Brunswick voters, amongst those
decided and leaning, just over a third (37%) say they would vote Liberal if an
election were held today, while a third (32%) says they would vote Progressive Conservative.
One-sixth (15%) say they would support the People’s Alliance of New
Brunswick, with 1 in 10 (11%) saying they would support the Green Party.
Few (4%) identify as NDP voters, or as supporting another party
(1%).
Coon
most popular leader, half disapprove of Gallant
Only a third (34%) approve
of the job Brian Gallant is doing as premier, while half (54%) say they
disapprove. 1 in 10 (11%) say they do not know.
Gallant’s net favourable
score (approve – disapprove) is -20.
A third (35%) say they
approve of the job Blaine Higgs is doing as leader of the PCs, while 4 in 10 (40%)
say they disapprove. One-quarter (25%) say they do not know.
Higgs’ net favourable score
(approve – disapprove) is -5.
4 in 10 (40%) say
they approve of the job David Coon is doing as leader of the Green Party, with
a quarter (22%) saying they disapprove. 4 in 10 (38%) say they do not know.
Coon’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is +19.
One-fifth (18%) say
they approve of the job Jennifer McKenzie is doing as Leader of the NDP, with
almost a third (29%) saying they disapprove. Half (53%) say they do not know.
McKenzie’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -11.
A quarter (27%) say
they approve of the job Kris Austin is doing as leader of the People’s Alliance
of New Brunswick, while a similar proportion (28%) say they disapprove. More
than 4 in 10 (45%) say they do not know.
Austin’s net favourable score (approve – disapprove) is -1.
Gallant
and Higgs seen as best Premier
One quarter (28%) say
that Brian Gallant would make the best Premier of New Brunswick, while a
similar proportion (26%) say Higgs would make the best Premier.
1 in 10 (12%) say
David Coon would make the best Premier, while a similar proportion (11%) say Kris
Austin would make the best premier.
Few (4%) identified
Jennifer McKenzie as the best premier.
One-fifth (19%) do
not know which candidate would make the best premier.
Almost
half say Liberals most likely to win
More than 4 in 10
(46%) say the Liberals are most likely to win, with a third (30%) saying it
would be the PCs.
1 in 10 (8%) say the
People’s Alliance of New Brunswick is most likely to win. Few identify either
the NDP (2%) or Green (2%) as likely to win.
1 in 10 (12%) say
they do not know.
Included amongst
those that said the Liberals are likely to win are (86%) of Liberal voters, a
quarter (22%) of PC voters, a third (32%) of NDP voters, 4 in 10 (42%)Green
voters, and one-fifth (18%) of People’s Alliance voters.
Included amongst
those that said the PCs are likely to win are two-thirds (68%) of PC voters,
(5%) of Liberal voters, a quarter (28%) of NDP voters, a quarter (25%) of Green
voters, and a quarter (25%) of People’s Alliance of New Brunswick voters.
4 in 10 (41%) of
People’s Alliance voters believes the People’s Alliance are likely to win, but
only one-sixth (13%) of Green voters believe the Greens are likely to win.
One-fifth (19%) of NDP voters believe the NDP are likely to win.
A third
says the economy is their biggest issue
A third (30%) say the
economy is the issue that is most likely to determine their vote. Healthcare
(18%) and it’s time for a change (15%) following somewhat far behind.
Education (10%),
local candidate (7%), and ethics in government (7%) are clustered together.
Few (2%) identify
party loyalty as their biggest issue.
1 in 10 (10%) said
another issue was their biggest.
Almost half (46%) of
PC voters say the economy is their biggest issue, with a quarter (26%) of
Liberals saying the same.
Narrow PC
Majority
If the election were
held today, the PCs project to secure 25 seats, with the Liberals serving
as official opposition with 22. The Green and the People’s alliance would
secure 1 seat each.
“The Liberals lead,
but the Progressive Conservatives are likely much closer than they would want
at this point in the campaign, with Gallant’s high level of disapproval
potentially dragging their support down, somewhat” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “Kris Austin and the People’s Alliance of New
Brunswick have surged into third place and lead the Green Party. As of right
now, it looks like it could be a fight to the finish for both the Premier’s
chair, and the third party.”
Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
