Dead
heat!
All three federal parties tied
TORONTO May 14th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1286 Canadian
voters, almost exactly equal proportions, 3-in-10, will vote Conservative
(31%), Liberal (31%) or NDP (30%) if the federal election were held today. This
represents a decline for the Conservatives (from 35% on April 22) and a sharp
increase for the NDP (from just 23%). Few will vote Bloc Quebecois (3%), Green
(4%) or for another party (1%). In Ontario, the Conservatives have a very
slight lead (36%) over the Liberals (34%), while the NDP trails (26%). In
Quebec, however, the NDP are firmly in front (38%), ahead of the Liberals
(30%). The Conservatives (16%) and the Bloc Quebecois (13%) do not contend.
Among
past Liberal voters (May, 2011), more than a tenth will vote NDP this time
around (13%), as will a similar proportion of past Conservatives (11%). About
one sixth of past New Democrats will vote Liberal this time (16%), and this is
about half the level usually seen. About one tenth of past Conservatives will
vote New Democrat (11%).
Weak Conservative minority seen
If
these results are projected up to seats in a 338 seat House, the Conservatives
would take a minority of 131, 39 fewer than needed for a majority. The NDP
would form the opposition again with 111 seats, and the Liberals would capture
95 seats. The Green Party would retain their leader’s seat.
Leader approval stable
Despite
the sharp increase in voter preference for the NDP, opposition leader Tom
Mulcair’s favourables are steady (approve - 46%, net favourable score - +19,
compared to 48% and +20 on April 16). Justin Trudeau’s approval is steady as
well (39% and -2 now, 40% and -2 last month). The Prime Minister’s approval is
down very slightly (from 33% to 31%), as is his net favourable score (approve
minus disapprove, -25 last month to -30 this month).
Expectation of Liberal or Conservative victory
When
asked which party will win the next election, roughly equal proportions, about
3-in-10, opt for the Conservatives (32%) or the Liberals (30%). These findings
are down sharply from April 16 (36% and 37%, respectively), while the NDP have
seen expectations for their victory increase strongly (from 10% to 20%).
"It is clear the Notley
victory in Alberta has shaken up the federal political scene. Conservatives (and
Liberals), who used to park their disaffected votes with the Greens have now
been given ‘permission’ to vote for the NDP if they are unhappy with their own
party, and it appears many of them are," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne
Bozinoff.
Lorne
Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be
reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.
