A Conservative Majority
Toronto, October 16th – In a random sampling of public
opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1226 Canadian voters, amongst those
decided and leaning, if an election were held today the Conservative party
would secure support from 4 in 10 (41%), while the Liberals would secure support
from about one-third (32%).
The NDP sees support from one-sixth (15%) and the Green party sees
support from about 1 in 10 (7%).
Few say they are supporting either the BQ (4%) or another party
(1%).
Those respondents more likely to vote Conservative include those
aged 35 to 44 (47%) and 45 to 54 (46%), males (49%), those earning $80,000 to
$100,000 (48%), the wealthiest (45%), the least educated (49%), and those
living in Alberta (69%).
Those respondents more likely to vote Liberal include those aged 55
to 64 (38%) and 65 and above (35%), females (34%), the wealthiest (40%), and
those living in Ontario (36%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (35%), and Atlantic
Canada (34%), or Québec (33%).
Seat breakdown
If the election were held today, we project these results would see
a Conservative majority government with 184 seats. The Liberals would serve as opposition
with 113 seats, and the NDP would serve as third party with 33 seats.
The BQ would win 7, and the Green Party would win 1.
“The Conservatives
have a strong lead over the Liberals right now,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “The expected bump from the successful
renegotiation of the free trade agreement seems not to have materialized for
Trudeau’s Liberals. One question that’s worth asking about one year away from
an election: right now, are prospective voters supporting the Conservatives or
turning away from the Liberals?”
