Conservatives leading over
Liberals
If election held today,
Conservatives would secure majority
Toronto, December 3rd – In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1541
Canadian voters, with those decided and leaning, 4 in 10 (43%) say they would
support the Conservatives, with a third (34%) saying they would support the
Liberals.
1 in 10 (11%) say they would support the NDP,
with a few (6%) supporting the Green Party. Few would support the BQ (4%) or
another party (1%).
Respondents most likely to support the
Conservatives include those who live in the Prairies (Alberta 65%,
Manitoba/Saskatchewan 57%), males (51%), between the ages of 45-54 (51%),
earning between $60k-$80k (49%), and/or have an education level of secondary
school or less (47%).
Respondents most likely to say they support
the Liberals include those who live in the Atlantic region (50%), between the
ages of 35-44 (35%), are 65 and over (35%), earning between 100k-250k (40%)
and/or earned a post-graduate degree (40%).
Based on these results, the Conservatives are
tracking toward a majority government of 180 seats. The Liberals would serve as
official opposition with 140. The NDP would secure 10, the BQ 6, and the Greens
2.
Is Canada better or worse than
in 2014?
When asked if Canada is doing better or worse
than it was 4 years ago, just under half of respondents (TOP2: 47%) stated it was
better with a third (32%) stating it was a bit better and about 1 in 7 (15%)
stating it was much better. While a little over half of respondents
(BTM2: 53%) stated it was worse, about a quarter (23%) stated it was a bit
worse and under a third (30%) stating it was much worse.
Unsurprisingly, the majority of Conservative
voters (BTM2: 88%) believe that Canada is worse than it was 4 years ago while
the majority of Liberal voters (TOP2: 86%) believe that Canada is better than
it was 4 years ago.
However, nearly 6 in 10 NDP and Green voters
(TOP2: 58%, 62%) believe that Canada is better than it was 4 years ago with a
little over 1 in 2 Bloc Quebecois voters (54%) agreeing with the same
sentiment.
Trudeau, Scheer nearly tied for
‘Best Prime Minister’
When asked who would make the best Prime
Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for, 1 in 3 respondents
selected Trudeau (33%) and Scheer (32%). 22% stated that they didn’t know,
while a few selected Elizabeth May (8%) and Jagmeet Singh (6%).
Trudeau, Singh disapproval
rating high
More than half (54%) respondents disapprove
of the job that Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister while over 1 in 3
(38%) approve and a little under 1 in 10 (8%) don’t know.
4 in 10 (41%) disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh
is doing as the leader of the NDP, 1 in 5 approve (20%) and almost 4 in 10
(39%) don’t know.
However, Andrew Scheer has a relatively even
rating across the board with 1 in 3 (35%) who disapprove of the job Andrew
Scheer is doing as the leader of the opposition, 1 in 3 approve (33%) and 1 in
3 (32%) don’t know.
1 in 3 (34%) approve of the job Elizabeth May
is doing as the leader of the Green Party while 1 in 4 (27%) disapprove and 4
in 10 (39%) don’t know.
“The Conservatives
have a strong and steady lead over the Liberals as we go into the New Year,”
said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “With more than half of NDP, BQ and Green voters
believing that Canada is better off now than it was 4 years ago, it will be
imperative for Trudeau’s Liberals to capture uncommitted voters from those
parties in order to have a chance at winning the election over Scheer’s
Conservatives”.
Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D.
is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.
