Conservatives leading over Liberals
If an election were held today,
Conservatives would secure majority
Toronto, March 5th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1301 Canadian voters, with those decided
and leaning, 4 in 10 (42%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a
third (33%) saying they would support the Liberals.
1 in 10 (12%) say they would support the NDP,
with a few (5%) supporting the Green Party, BQ (3%), or the People’s Party of
Canada (4%), or another party (1%).
Respondents most likely to support the
Conservatives include those who live in the Prairies (Alberta 69%), males (53%),
between the ages of 35-44 (47%), and the most wealthy (49%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the
Liberals include those who live in the Atlantic region (55%), those between the
ages of 45 to 54 (36%), 55 to 64 (36%), and 65 and over (37%), females (41%),
those earning $20k-$40k (38%) or $40k-$60k (41%), and those with post-graduate
degrees (43%).
If an election were held today, these results
suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 185 seats. The
Liberals would serve as the official opposition with 129 seats. The NDP would
secure 18, the BQ 5, and the Greens 1.
Best PM: Scheer leading over
Trudeau
Respondents were asked who they think would make
the best PM, regardless of which party they plan to vote for, one-third (31%) say
it’s Andrew Scheer and one-quarter (26%) say Justin Trudeau.
About 1 in 10 say Elizabeth May (9%) or Jagmeet
Singh (7%).
One-quarter of respondents say they (27%) don’t
know.
6-in-10 respondents disapprove of
the job Justin Trudeau is doing as PM
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime
Minister, 6-in-10 respondents (60%) disapprove, while about a third approve
(30%), and 1-in-10 (10%) don’t know.
Scheer’s approval rate is equal to
his disapproval rate
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of
the opposition, one third (34%) of respondents approve, another third (34%) of
respondents disapprove, and another third (32%) don’t know.
4-in-10 respondents disapprove of
Jagmeet Singh as leader of the NDP
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the
NDP, nearly one-quarter (22%), 4-in-10 (38%) disapprove, and another 4-in-10 (40%)
don’t know.
4-in-10 respondents don’t know if
they approve or disapprove of May
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of
the Green Party, 4-in-10 (41%) of respondents don’t know whether they
approve/disapprove, a little over one-quarter (27%) disapprove, and one-third
(32%) approve.
Is Canada better or worse than in
2015?
When asked if
Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over half stated it
was worse (BTM2: 59%), with a third (35%) saying it’s much worse.
4-in-10
respondents (TOP2: 41%) say it is better, with about 1 in 10 (13%) saying it’s
much better.
Respondents who
say Canada is doing worse include, males (67%), those with secondary school or
less (69%), and those living in the Alberta (80%) or Manitoba/Saskatchewan (78%), and
those voting Conservative (90%).
Respondents who
say Canada is doing better include, females (49%), those earning $40k-$60k
(50%), those with post-graduate degrees (52%), those living in Québec (55%),
and those voting Liberal (81%).
"The SNC-Lavalin issue is allowing the Conservatives to maintain a
healthy lead in the polls,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff,
President of Forum Research. “This is a tumultuous time for the Trudeau
government, and if they aren’t able to get the situation under control, it may
be difficult to regain the ground that’s been lost over the past few months.”
