Gap Between Second-Place Liberals and Leading
Conservatives Widens
Conservatives would secure
majority if election held today
Toronto, April 9th – In a random
sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1634 Canadian voters, with those decided
and leaning, 4 in 10 (42%) say they would support the Conservatives, with a
third (29%) saying they would support the Liberals and a tenth (12%) supporting
the NDP.
1 in 10 (9%) support the Green Party and few
support the BQ (6%), the People’s Party of Canada (2%), or another party (1%).
Respondents most likely to support the
Conservatives include males (51%), live in the Prairies (Alberta 67%,
Manitoba/Saskatchewan 64%), are between the ages of 45-54 (48%), the least
educated (51%) and earn between $80,000 to $100,000 (47%).
Respondents most likely to say they support the
Liberals are those who live in Ontario (36%), those aged 35-44 (34%), 55-64
(33%), or 65 and over (35%), females (35%), those earning $20,000 to $40,000 (31%)
or $100,000-$250,000 (31%), and those with post-graduate degrees (39%).
If an election were held today, these results
suggest the Conservatives would win a majority government of 192 seats. The
Liberals would serve as the official opposition with 105 seats. The BQ would
secure 23 seats, the NDP 16 seats, and the Green Party with 2 seats.
1 in 3 say Scheer would make the
best Prime Minister
A third (30%) say Andrew Scheer would make the
best Prime Minister regardless of which party they plan to vote for. A quarter
(26%) say Justin Trudeau, 1 in 10 (10%) say Elizabeth May and a similar
proportion say (7%) Jagmeet Singh would make the best Prime Minister.
1 in 4 (27%) of respondents say they don’t know.
6 in 10 disapprove of the job
Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime
Minister, 6 in 10 (60%) disapprove, while about a third approve (30%), and 1 in
10 (10%) don’t know. The Prime Minister has a net favourable score
(approve-disapprove) of -30.
4 in 10 disapprove of the job Scheer
is going as leader of opposition
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as the leader of
the opposition, 4 in 10 (40%) disapprove, while a third (31%) approve, and a
third (29%) don’t know. Andrew Scheer has a net favourable score
(approve-disapprove) of -9.
4 in 10 don’t know if they approve
or disapprove of Singh as leader of the NDP
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the
NDP, 1 in 3 (35%) disapprove, 1 in 4 (25%) approve, and 4 in 10 (40%) don’t know. Jagmeet Singh
has a net favourable score (approve-disapprove) of -10.
4 in 10 approve of May as the
leader of the Green Party
When asked if
they approve or disapprove of the job Elizabeth May is doing as the leader of
the Green Party, 4 in 10 (38%) respondents approve, a quarter (24%) disapprove,
and another 4 in 10 (38%) don’t know. Elizabeth May has a net favourable score
(approve-disapprove) of +14.
Is Canada better or worse than in
2015?
When asked if
Canada is doing better or worse than it was 4 years ago, over half (BTM2: 57%)
stated it was worse, with 2 in 10 (22%) saying it is ‘a bit worse’ and 1 in 3 (35%)
saying it’s ‘much worse’.
4 in 10 (TOP2: 43%)
say Canada is doing better than 4 years ago, with less than a third (30%)
saying it was ‘a bit better’ and a tenth (13%) saying it’s much better.
The economy is the most important
issue regarding the upcoming election
|
%
|
Feb 27 – 28, 2019
|
April 3 – 6, 2019
|
|
Sample
|
1301
|
1634
|
|
Economy
|
26
|
28
|
|
Environment
|
15
|
21
|
|
Healthcare
|
17
|
13
|
|
Taxes
|
12
|
12
|
|
Education
|
8
|
7
|
|
Immigration
|
10
|
5
|
|
Housing
|
4
|
5
|
|
Public Safety
|
3
|
3
|
|
Something else
|
6
|
6
|
1 in 4 (28%)
respondents say the economy is the most important issue in the upcoming
election. Respondents most likely to say the economy is
the most important issue are those who live in Alberta
(59%), are between the ages of 45 to 54 (37%), male (34%), earn between $80,000
to $100,000 (39%) and have some college or university education (31%).
1 in 5 (21%)
say the environment is the most important issue and 1 in 10 say it is
healthcare (13%) or taxes (12%).
1 in 6 say healthcare or the economy is the second most important issue
1 in 6 say healthcare (17%) or
the economy (16%) are the second most important issues.
Respondents most likely to say
healthcare is the second most important issue are those who live in Ontario
(21%), female (22%), earn between $60,000 to $80,000 (20%) or have completed
college or university (19%).
1 in 7 said taxes (14%) was the
second most important.
1 in 10 said the environment
(11%) or education (11%) is the second most important issue with a few stating
housing (6%), immigration (6%), public safety (4%) or something else (2%).
“The Conservative lead over the Liberals has widened as the
challenges plaguing the government are beginning to take their toll,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum
Research. “With the exception of Elizabeth May, none of the Federal leaders has
a positive net favourable score, which suggests people aren’t particularly
impressed with most of their options, right now.”
